Factset, an agency that polls analysts, released a newsletter today titled "S&P 500 NOW PROJECTED TO REPORT A YOY DECLINE IN EARNINGS IN Q1 2020." The newsletter shows that analyst estimates of S&P 500 earnings have fallen from an expected 7% growth rate in Q1 to an expected -0.1% growth rate, and they're still coming down. However, the newsletter also breaks...
Earlier this year, investment bank JP Morgan smashed estimates because it had bought a bunch of long-term bond funds ahead of last year's interest rate cuts, and the funds increased in price accordingly. (When rates go down, long-term bond prices go up.) I've been expecting futures markets to start forecasting an interest rate cut, as they did today, but it didn't...
Recession is likely later this year due to bad debt going into default, and recession is usually good for gold, which serves as a safe-haven metal. More importantly, futures markets are predicting either a 0.25% or 0.5% interest rate cut on the next Fed meeting. That's a surge from yesterday, when futures traders were broadly predicting only 0.25% cut. A larger...
The Kensho clean power ETF may get a boost next week from Lisa Murkowski's proposed legislation to increase US investment in clean energy tech. It also ought to benefit from any rally in the prices of oil and natural gas.
The YANG China Bear fund should gain this week after an extremely bad print on China's manufacturing PMI, which came in 22% worse than expected over the weekend. China has been claiming economic recovery-- they say 90% of their state-run firms are back in business-- but the numbers belie those claims. Also go check out a BBC article titled "Coronavirus: Nasa...
To be a truly successful investor, you have to have very long time horizons. Most of us track trends for days or weeks, but big investment banks and algorithm-driven "smart money" track trends for years or decades. This requires patience that most people can't muster. With that in mind, let's look at some long-term trends in the S&P 500 to see where we might want...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been forming a long-term parallel channel and has some support from the channel bottom around 24,000. The Dow may fall to that level on Monday due to the spread of coronavirus over the weekend (including a cluster of 11 cases in San Antonio, Texas) before rebounding from 24,000 on faith that the Fed will cut interest rates....
After the S&P 500 broke below its parallel channel, it has been rallying today on analyst speculation that the Fed might cut interest rates as insurance against a recession this year. The FOMC FedWatch futures are putting the likelihood of a rate cut at 75%, and I expect that number will climb in coming weeks. Expect a good 2-3 day rally as the S&P comes back up...
Callon Petroleum looks to be beginning a turnaround as oil prices recover on news of continued coronavirus slowdown. Callon also reports earnings 7 trading days from now, so you've got the possibility of an earnings bump. Callon is extremely undervalued at the current price, with analyst estimates of the company's earnings only rising over the last few weeks...
I think we're likely to see a correction in the S&P 500 to at least the bottom of the channel, if not lower. On Tuesday the S&P 500 hit 19 forward P/E, making the index the most expensive it's been since 2002 (18 years ago). In effect, the S&P is priced as if there's zero risk in the market right now. Of course, we all know that's not true; between coronavirus and...
So TradingView is showing the wrong price on this; it's 10.90 right now, having dipped with the rest of the market mid-day after a strong open due to a large earnings and revenue beat. SGC's PEG is 0.8, according to Zacks, and its dividend yield is nearly 4%. That makes it a really good value. Unfortunately SGC offered no guidance, but the earnings and revenue...
A couple months ago, WPX Energy announced that it was raising its production forecast for 2020 and will initiate a dividend sometime this year. The share price appropriately rocketed to $14 or so. Over the last few months of weak oil prices, it's come back down to as low as $11.50. However, it's now making a rounding bottom, with oil prices strengthening thanks to...
Viacom CBS has fallen far this year, to its current P/E of under 4.5. With a PEG ratio of 0.47, it's looking extremely undervalued. ViacomCBS has an analyst summary score of 9.4/10, meaning analysts are highly bullish on the stock. In terms of technicals, the stock is exiting oversold on the daily. Analysts have lately been increasing their earnings expectations...
Elevate has been a little weak, because it's a subprime consumer lender and thus poses a lot of risk in a possible recession year. Also, earnings growth is expected to slow somewhat next year. Still, this company posted great earnings on its last report and has extremely bullish analyst ratings (9.8/10 summary score). It's also near a long-term support level right...
Despite the API report of a large crude oil inventory build this evening, oil has formed a double bottom on news of a slowdown in the spread of coronavirus. As recently as 4 days ago, my model was forecasting 190,000 cases of the virus by the end of February. The latest numbers imply a range from 80,000 to 170,000, depending upon whether the slowdown continues....
PennyMac Financial Services is one I already owned $1000 of, because it was already one of the cheapest booming companies out there, with a PEG ratio of just 0.48. It's looking even better after today's earnings report, with big beats on both earnings and revenue. Unfortunately, I can't seem to get a buy order filled after hours.
Last month, I posted an article here on TradingView in which I mentioned three indicators that 2020 might be a banner year for stocks. We had had a strong Santa Claus rally and a strong "first five days" of the year, I pointed out, and unless there was a major end-of-month correction, we were on course to have a strong January. All three of those indicators are...
I'm uncertain what CURO will do tomorrow after its mixed earnings report, lowish sales guidance, and announcement of a share buyback and first-ever dividend. What I do believe is that the initiation of a dividend will be quite bullish for the stock in the medium-to-long-term. Stocks that initiate a dividend for the first time tend, over the next 6-12 months, to...