Update on my last two VXX ideas. So far everything is going to plan. As I thought, VXX is showing a "double bottom" in correlation to the double top formations showing in the S&P and NASDAQ. Looks like a wedge pattern and consolidating for a breakout. Should be one more small correction overnight or tomorrow morning before it breaks out. Using yesterday as wave 1,...
Almost posted this earlier today but the hard test of the resistance had me questioning my analysis. At 3:38 it looks like it is retreating and the bears successfully held. The flat top resistance and lower lows make me think this is a bearish megaphone (wedge) and we may see a noticeable correction to the downside. After such a strong push by the bulls only to be...
It looks like it really wants that ATH. It will either get it on this push or a small correction will hit it.
The VXX made a nice move to the upside today as the wave analysis predicted. It is nice to be right once and a while. It has been quite a while since I made an accurate forecast for VIX. Now the question is will it keep moving up or will things calm back down again? I personally think the S&P and Nasdaq are headed for a moderate correction over the next few days...
Disney seem to be showing a bearish rising wedge pattern. This reversal pattern shows a contraction of the range and indicates that the uptrend is losing strength. Given that all price waves have been 3 wave sequences, which is indicative of a corrective wave, it looks like Disney may be taking a turn for the worse. It looks like from the waves that the next...
Note that I did the waves in reverse for the Vxx since it has an inverse relationship (3 waves up, 5 waves down). If that is true, then looks like VXX/VIX is looking to make a move in the upward direction. Could be a trash idea as I never saw someone use wave analysis like this for VXX.
S&P 500 is at a crossroads just like the NASDAQ. It has been in correction since March. Thought it might turn down at the 1.4 Fib but it has pushed to the 1.5 level. Will it turn down here or can it push to 1.6 and a new ATH? The divergence indicator it has been showing bear for over a week. Is it the end or just consolidation for a new push. Hope this helps and...
Nasdaq is at critical juncture and showing consolidation. Bear -- Could be a massive corrective wave B since all the waves are 3 wave sequences instead of 5 wave sequences. If that is true, then it could be headed down to 9000 or lower for a Wave C. Bull -- Otherwise it is just an odd bird for a motive and it's going to complete one more wave up the 12000...
Clearly in a corrective wave sequence. Last time I saw this was right before the S&P 500 made a 7% drop a while back. Question is where to next? More sideways at current level for a day or two, then something Moderate correction with more sideways waiting on stimulus before making a move Moderate correction with new motive wave to bubble to the market to...
I completely redid my wave analysis of the S&P 500. Turns out it has only supported two successful 5 wave motive sequences since 2009. All other stock market gains have been Fed induced via QE and show up as a 3 wave sequences (purple). Clearly the economy has not been terrible the whole time, but the stock market's value is clearly over-valuated because of it...
Wave analysis all the way back to the beginning of NASDAQ (zoom out and pan around). Focus on last major motive wave sequence. If my analysis is correct, then it looks like the NASDAQ may be at the end of its run. Also, I added the final motive wave from the dot com bubble over the current motive wave. As you can see, the NASDAQ is currently a bigger bubble than...
Here is an update to my S&P 500 waves since 1995. It seems pretty clear to me that the S&P is in a corrective wave based on the 1W timescale. Wave count from 1995 and from 2009 both synch together to hit their peaks during March. RSI and MACD are showing down slopes (divergence) just like all corrections in the past. I am not saying there is not more...
Current RSI divergence indicator is showing bull flag. This indicator has been right (4 of 6 = 67%) more than wrong.
Update from Friday mornings analysis. If it goes just like June, then look for potential big gap up in VXX Monday, possibly Tuesday.
Waited the entire market rally for this to happen. AMD finally hit its 2.0 motive wave 5 after Intel disappointing earnings. I personally ran out of patience and sold back at $49, oh well. Nothing left in it now except for a corrective wave just like all the other big tech stocks.
The NASDAQ broke support yesterday and stayed below all day. This is a clear sign that the strong primary motive wave off of the March low is now over. A corrective wave is the next phase. The double top and Friday's drop was the first correction wave sequence. That was a small correction for Wave 5. Now we should see a full corrective wave in response to the...
S&P 500 broke the support line yesterday and stayed under all day. This was not a test like previously. This is an indication that we are going to see a corrective wave sequence. A common pattern is for it to be symmetric about the support line for Wave A and Wave B to use the support line as a new resistance line. The height of Wave B is hard to know. I would...
S&P 500 looks to be breaking the support trend line. This is a standard indicator that the market is moving to correction. Looks like the entire S&P 500 was being held up by the large tech stocks (not a surprise). Most of the big names like Google, Apple, etc. have hit their 2.0 fib levels and are moving to a cycle corrective wave just like the S&P 500 has been in...