I did this for fun. All notes are on the chart. It requires that you believe in Elliott wave theory and that markets will eventually reset to the mean. If you look at crashes like the great depression, dot com bubble, housing market, then it is a lot more plausible than you think. People during those times never thought the party was going to end, until it...
Coronavirus has nothing on the Fed, for now. Economy reopening is what the market wants and that is what it got. Will the new cases slow the market down? Short of another full blown lock down, does not look like it. Will be interesting to see how earning factor in. I am still bearish enough to wait it out for a few more days. It is not a slam dunk yet. IMO, I...
I am not 100% convinced yet (about 60%), but it is looking more and more likely based on today's strong hold at these new levels.
After yesterday's rally anything goes. The wave count could be 5 waves up or 3 waves up, both are viable. That long pin on the last candle hit 1.618 in a 3 wave, and if that is true then we are still in the corrective wave. I am still on the bearish side and expect more down. I am going with yesterday as a big short squeeze. The power of the Fed is hard to argue...
Food for thought. Is the corrective wave over and we are moving on to the next major motive wave 2? The thing that I find interesting, is the current rally from the low yesterday looks to be in 5 waves. My understanding is that up trends only happen in 5's when we are in a motive wave and not a corrective (5 up and 3 down). Corrective waves have up trends in 3...
Update from yesterday's action. I am still bearish for the next day or so. That was a nice up day right in line with my wave analysis. If my wave count is correct, then today should be a down day. I looked at aftermarket/premarket trading and the trend is clearly indicating down. I marked it with some notes in the chart. The minor uptrend channel was broken...
Great bullish signal, but we are not done going down yet IMO. This looks just like June 25-26. Big spike at the end of the day. Flat in aftermarket. Good sized drop the next day. Then we really get a chance to go back up. I think this continued bullish trend of bushing the resistance of the channel is a very good sign for the month ahead. MU beats estimates which...
Today was a nice rebound in the major corrective wave right up to the trading channel, but my wave analysis says there is one more down wave left. I look for more down in the next few days. The fact that the S&P 500 is riding the resistance side (top side) of the channel is good news in my opinion. It typically indicates a bullish sentiment. Much better than...
Some more of my ramblings. Clearly a lot of options. Most importantly, I expect more down before a small bounce, then earnings are really going to drive it all (duh). Major increase in Coronavrius cases are still a massive wild card for the S&P 500, I doubt as much for NASDAQ.
My latest musings, so take it with a big grain of salt. I think it has one last hoorah before it rolls over. That would be the 3rd sub-wave of corrective wave B (we have not seen that yet). I expect some kind of Fed news by the end of the month that will be the catalyst to pump up the stocks to achieve this. The key to look for in all of this is the breaking of...
My latest iteration. Working hard on it, but as always take it with a large grain of salt. There is little doubt that we have completed the first full motive wave off the bottom and are now moving to the corrective wave cycle. I tried to outline the best I could on the chart 5 possible options based on Elliott wave theory. What I did not layout (which is more...
Sorry to everyone following my charts. I think I have made a grave error in my wave analysis. I did not align the wave back in wave 1,2,3 correctly. The data was very noisy with several overshoots and hard corrections. It has been nagging at me for weeks that something was wrong with my counts and fib ret levels. I think that I may have it right now. If I do, then...
Last time it exhibited the triangle/wedge pattern it had a nice breakout but pulled right back. It looks like this breakout will be bigger. Zoom out to see the full Elliott wave sequence starting in 2016. I used that to estimate the peak at which it will break out ($65). The red arrow implies it will not stay there long as a large market correction is coming.
Been going over my wave analysis. Sorry if it is hard to read. There is a chance that we have not finished the corrective wave and there is one more leg down to 2940. The time scale of the recent drop was significantly shorter than the previous one. There was a hard rebound in this recent correction that made it look like a completed corrective wave, but from a...
Here is an update of my analysis for the S&P 500. Watching futures this morning I can see that we are headed for a drop this morning. Futures are on the last leg (C) of a correct wave. There seems to be 2 subwaves that need to complete in that last coercive wave as of writing this at 8:45am. If that is true, then at the opening bell it is going to look pretty...
I know it seems like I am preaching dooms day is upon us, but it all lines up too perfectly on the chart. Note, that I laid out all of the Elliott wave grand supercycles first to define bull and bear markets. I then went to the internet to find out if something happened in the market during those years. The great depressions was obvious, so lets skip that. To my...
Tell me why I am wrong.
Dusted off my AD line analysis and made some updates. Not sure it is helpful in predicting what is going to happen, but the different motive and corrective waves are visible. The jobs report rally is also clearly visible and a clear departure from normal