Yesterday - See chart for an update on yesterday's trading. Everything followed the model. Quick spring in the morning followed by an solid day. Today - Looking like a good gap up this morning for a strong push in "intermediate" wave 1 of the FINAL "primary" wave 5. This is the same pattern for the start of all of the "intermediate" motive waves, so that is a...
Reworked all of my analysis techniques based on previous S&P 500 rallies/corrections and the first half of this rally. My focus is entirely on parallel channels and Elliot wave theory. It is not perfect by any means, but seems to fit all the cases I tried pretty well. However, even the smallest of errors in the peaks of waves or large noise can make a dramatic...
Should have followed my own advice and bought VXX. It went up 75%!!!
The market regained its senses today after that "fake" jobs report rally the last few days. If you have been following my ideas then you would see that I had a lot of trouble making my Elliot wave analysis work out right. The rally last week did not fit the model. That rally just blew my mind. I have been going crazy trying to figure it out. Well, now I know....
So may technical indicators all converging in one spot! Is AMD quietly consolidating before a big breakout? It has been kind of flat the last week or two while the rest of the market has been making ATHs. Is it AMD turns? Will it make another test of $50 and then bounce up, go to $50 and stay, or straight to $56 or higher? What are your thoughts?
Every time the market makes a move I learn a lot more. Still fine tuning my Elliot Wave model and made some mistakes again over the last week. Here is my latest. Today should be a short 2%, 1-day correction before the final wave 5 to end this motive wave at 3330. Hard to tell if we will correct back to the fib line today, but it will be close. Again, if I modeled...
If VIX breaks its resistance of 26.5, then it looks like a confirmation of a corrective wave. See my S&P 500 idea for more info.
IMO, it is corrective wave time after a full 5 stage motive Elliot wave. There is a slim chance of a touch more upside, but it should not last long. S&P should have peaked on Thursday based on the Elliott wave analysis, but the jobs report boosted way above. If I have my analysis correct and we are about to see a corrective wave, then I have 2 theories on what the...
For the most part it seems that you need to enter your buy/sell at the end of the day before close. If you do your analysis at night, then make your orders for the next day you will always behind the curve. The premarket will already set all things in motion for the next day. If your orders go in at 9:30, then you will get caught up in the gapping and initial wave...
Today's massive rally proves the V recover just like the Trade War crash. The pattern from then matches this recovery almost exactly. I overlaid that recover on today and made some very minor tweaks for the exact numbers. I also looked at the last election and the S&P 500 peaked in mid-Sept and was kind of dead until after the election. Everything lines up...
Taking everything I learned from the last 2 months and making a bold prediction for the rest of this rally. I don't see any major set backs stopping this bull now. We weathered 2 months of horrible economic news and this bull just kept running. Based on Elliott wave theory, motive wave 2 is 1.6 of wave 1. Wave 1 has already been clearly defined April 19th at...
Clear contracting cone. Entered the cone rising, assume leave rising. Last time it did this it made a quick move to $56.
Still doing my best to model the S&P 500 using trendlines and Elliott wave analysis. I am focused on using both now. The market was strong and predictable off the bottom, which made analysis "easier". This latest motive/impulse wave has been so tricky because it is weak in volume (commitment) even though it is making new highs. The corrective phases are very weak...
Okay, been hard at work on my Elliott Wave analysis. I keep getting it slightly wrong. It is very hard to pick out the patterns with all of the noise. I made another large mistake last time! We are on Wave 5 now not Wave 4. We are on the last leg of Wave 5 and getting ready to go into correction. There is a slim potential for a little more upside, but this thing...
Title says it all. This also aligns with my Elliott Wave analysis.
Been working on this the last few days. Fixed some mistakes in previous idea. So far (if I implemented it correctly this time) the wave analysis is holding true.
Market tracking along for a normal corrective wave, and then in the last 10 minutes a massive surge. A buying spike that fits no model. There was something similar to it a while back in a similar corrective wave that was quickly followed by a huge sell off. Is the market just completely bonkers and head to 4000 this month or is this a good old fashion "pump and...
TLDR: The S&P 500 is about 2/3 way through its motive wave. It should have a peak around 3110 in the early in the week. A small pull back to around 3060, then one more rally to around 3130 by weeks end. After that expect a new corrective wave. The scale of this corrective wave will most likely set the tempo for the rest of the month (to the moon, sideways, or down...