I have a custom moving averages trend indicator that creates a metric based on the relationship between price, 20, 50, 100, and 200 day SMA. price > 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 then metric = 1.0 price < 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 then metric = 0.0 otherwise, it will be somewhere in between based on their relative postion (above/below). I color it based on two thresholds...
A look at how the counter rallies in the dot com crash compare to the market since 2003. The dark red lines all have the same slope on the log scale. I just moved them to align to the peaks. You can also see that last week caused the price to break down out of the trading channel started in 2019 and then a retest Friday. This morning we are hovering under it. It...
VIX looks to be exhibiting a bullish ascending triangle pattern. This could mean we are about to see a big drop in major indices in the next week or so (look back at 2018). Look for confirmation of it breaking out above the flat top and maybe a retest (resistance becomes support) before making a big move up.
NASDAQ is setting up to make big move up or down. This morning saw a retest of the main trading channel since 2016. If it holds, then this will be a higher low and look for a rally to 15,000 to 15,300 levels. This would be the best bull case with a low but possible change to get back to ATHs. If it breaks down, then we could retest 13,200 level and then rally,...
For growth stocks, I matched the pattern from 2018 to the current trading channels. If true, then there could be up to 15% downside in the coming weeks. The good news is that we could see a sizeable (30%) rebound afterwards.
VIX was on a steady decline since the March 2020 peak until around November of 2021. Since then, it has been on a steady rise making higher lows and higher highs. I am not sure what this culminates in, but it is something traders may want to take note of. I think that it could be a good chance to buy the dips in VXX or UVXY and sell the rips until the trend changes.
I still think the Head & Shoulders pattern has not completed and the near term bottom is the $400 level ($390's). That would also complete a nice 0.382 fib retrace of this really long wave since the June 2020 pullback. It would also fill the gap from April 2021. Not to mention, the $400 level is a very strong psychological level, and I expect heavy buying if we...
Currently QQQ is testing fib level after losing midline of 2019 channel. Finding support on top of 2009 channel.
Looking like a big decision point about to happen. Will the S&P confirm the H&S pattern and see a significant correction in the next week or so, or will it break out for a run at the ATH? sma for 20, 50, 100, 200
In less than a month the NASDAQ erased a year of gains. I guess the old saying still rings true that the markets take the stairs to the top and the elevator to the bottom. Overnight as Russian invaded Ukraine, the NASDAQ broke down and reentered its main trading channel since 2016. I expect that we will see further weakness until at least it tests the black...
Just doing a little postulating based on trends and price levels. I was betting that we would bounce already towards the ATH, but the Ukraine conflict seems to have put a damper on things. Maybe the current trend line will provide the needed support. Otherwise, it looks like we could have more correction to go before we get back up to ATH prices. 1D 2h
If we continue this bearish weakness, we could see the completion of a H&S pattern that could take us all the way down to fill the gap. That also hits a fib retrace of 0.382.
I laid out some of the major trend lines that you should watch over the coming weeks. I see QQQ hovering just under a key trend line but on top of key fib level.. I would guess that the market is waiting for the 20 day SMA to get closer and try to make a break back above this trend line for a counter rally (see image below). If it does break above, look for it...
Wow, that is some serious price action. Bottomed out at -3.9% around 11:30 and then rallied +4.6% by the end of the day to close positive for the day.. On the chart you can see the 20, 50, 100, and 200 day SMA. I also added the key price levels to watch. You can see the bounce off the lower and the morning open to be at the middle one. Would not be surprised if...
Since 2004 25 --> declines touch the 200 day SMA 8 --> continued into a larger correction 17 --> rebounded to some level 8/25 = 32% chance of bearish 17/25 = 68% chance bullish Looking at the trend since 2004, it may take a week or two at these levels before it chooses its direction. If I had to guess, this could be a likely match to today's place in the...
NASDAQ getting ready to make a big move up or down starting next week. You can see it is sitting right on the support line making a possible double bottom this week. Is that the start of another rally next week to cross the 2.146 fib level, or has the high flying NASDAQ finally going to correct? 1D 4h
Something that I have always theorized why the market has been so crazy from a technical analysis point. The S&P was already headed to a big run, COVID and the subsequent vaccine just distorted all of it. Just an idea. What do you think?
Things have been different lately in the NASDAQ. It has really leveled off in December and last week was rough. I laid out some trend lines and fib levels. To me, it looks like the rally from 2020 helped QQQ regain the bullish channel from the 2016 correction. Also, if start a fib sequence at the Feb 2016 low and a 1.0 at 2018 peak, then Nov 22 was a perfect touch...