The pair is sitting on a support/resistance line so better setting up a tight hedge with a stop-buy in case. Price action closed well below the Bollinger middle band on Friday with a bearish engulfing candlestick. The bearish divergence with RSI is adding to the downside view. If that materializes I plan to add another position when crossing below next Fibo under...
The confluent resistances provided by KS and 38.2 Fibo on the daily chart combined with the distance between closing price and TS are worrisome.
On the USDCAD the expected rate rise next Wednesday from the BOC is obviously already in the prices. On the USDCHF it's clear that CHF remains firm.
The remaining potential market mover to watch is of course OIL . On...
Once Tenkan sen is clearly out of the cloud signal will be fully confirmed on both timeframes.
Nervertheless price action broke an important long-term resistance and looks ready to break 2017 top on April 17.
Really long term resistance as shown on the weekly:
Following weak Tenkan/Kijun cross below the Kumo price action broke out from the cloud, pulled back and retrace up again, same for Chikou span.
Please note the Tenkan sen is also above the cloud and very close to last candlesticks supporting the uptrend continuation.
Weekly on the brink of bullish breakout as well.
Basicaslly we had a breakout below the cloud, a re-test retracement and now back to the South. Same goes for Chikou Span having crossed below historic closes, Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen, re-tested Kijun sen and back down again.
The weekly chart is showing some similar bearish breakout which gives more chances for the new emerging bearish trend if price action breaks...
This time the signal is loud and clear! Monthly chart is showing price action crossed below both Kijun sen and Tenkan sen, remaining below the cloud.
Last word will be as often to Chikou span borderline with historic closes.
A major signal for Ichimoku, however not fully confirmed yet as Chikou Span still has to cross above historic prices and out of the cloud.
Weekly is supportive with price action above the Kumo, Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen and Chikou Span above historic closes.
1) Price action rejected from the Fibonacci 50% retracement zone of the long-term downtrend that started on 21Nov2014.
2) Regular bearish divergence with RSI, which just crossed below the 50 line.
3) last daily candlestick broke short-term support line.
As far as pacific currencies are concerned and moreover JPY I always check Ichimoku for confirmation.
Bollinger bands breakout with shooting star on weekly timeframe (similar bearish breakout already confirmed on the daily).
BB are going wider after squeeze = increased volatility ahead = potential sharp reversal.