Greeks_live

Greeks_live

Implied volatility of BTC and ETH declined rapidly after the BTC halving, with the BTC Dvol falling from 75% to 65%, a new low since March. On the one hand, the stagnant market has caused the market realize volatility a significant drop, suppressing implied volatility from the pricing side. On the other hand, the margin released from the quarterly big delivery had...

Greeks_live

A Sneak Peek at This Week's Big Events (4/22-4/28) Bitcoin successfully completed the halving last Saturday, the market is relatively stable, and some hot projects pushed up the BTC Fee, making miners' income increase instead of decreasing for the time being. There are fewer macro events and data this week, with almost no macro events of note. The market still...

Greeks_live

21,564 BTC options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.64, a Maxpain point of $65,000 and a notional value of $1.4 billion. 298,415 ETH options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.42, Maxpain point of $3,125 and a notional value of $930 million. Crypto markets encountered significant pullback this week, with Bitcoin and Eth falling below...

Greeks_live

Despite the extreme panic spreading in the market yesterday as Bitcoin fell below the $60,000 mark and Eth below the $3,000 mark, major term options IVs are falling significantly. This is mainly caused by the sharp drop in call option prices, with the monthly skew now at a new low since the current bull market. Puts are priced much higher than calls, while...

Greeks_live

The most important event of the week is undoubtedly the Bitcoin halving expected to be completed on Saturday, with mining output going from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC after the halving. The halving, as the central marker of a big cycle for BTC, is monumental in its own right, and is likely to be very noteworthy in terms of the volatility it will cause in the...

Greeks_live

21,000 BTC options are due to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.62, a Maxpain point of $69,000 and a notional value of $1.5 billion. 230,000 ETH options are due to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.49, a Maxpain point of $3,425 and a notional value of $800 million. Volatility levels in the crypto market have risen significantly this week, with $70,000 and $3,500...

Greeks_live

Bitcoin broke through the $70,000 zone without warning, one step away from a new all-time high. The rapid rise has driven all major term IVs up significantly, with BTC Dvol now over 78%, and market sentiment has quickly reversed to a long atmosphere. More than 600 BTC of $100,000 strike call options have just been traded in Block trade, with a notional value of up...

Greeks_live

There are more macro events and data this week, mainly a number of U.S. economic data and interest rate resolutions from major central banks around the world. This month, the major central banks are likely to follow the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, while strong U.S. economic data doused expectations of interest rate cuts, high interest rate market will...

Greeks_live

18,000 BTC options to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.64, Maxpain point of $68,000 and notional value of $1.2 billion. 270,000 ETH options are due to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.38, Maxpain point of $3,400 and notional value of $890 million. Today is the first weekly delivery day after the big quarterly delivery, and the crypto market was weaker this...

Greeks_live

Tomorrow there is the important macro data of the US unemployment rate in March, strong US economic data makes the Fed's May rate cut possibility drop significantly, the probability of a rate cut in May has now dropped from 90% last month to 50% currently. Looking at Options Data, despite the nearly 10% pullback this week, volatility expectations in the market are...

Greeks_live

This week's main focus is on Friday's unemployment data, and there are multiple Fomc vote committee speeches this week that are equally noteworthy. Powell's recent speech has reiterated the expectation of a rate cut, but the high interest rate market will continue. The market is currently battling fiercely at $70,000, and the market lacks hot spots and traders are...

Greeks_live

135,000 BTC options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.85, a Maxpain point of $51,000 and a notional value of $9.5 billion. 1.58 million ETH options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.63, Maxpain point of $2,600 and notional value of $5.6 billion. Today is the big quarterly delivery of over LSE:15BN and the crypto market has rallied significantly this week,...

Greeks_live

With the big quarterly delivery and LSE:15BN of options pending, market participants are ramping up to move their positions, with BTC calls continuing to be the absolute workhorse of the move. Today's Block trades were dominated by 6-8Bps sfm, with dozens of Bps sfm not uncommon, a rare good time for finely pricing. As the market has continued to be highly...

Greeks_live

After several days of sustained declines, BTC realized volatility has risen sharply again, and all major term IVs have reached their highest levels in almost a year. Market expectations for volatility are even higher than during the record highs, and looking at the market data, this is mainly due to the significantly higher prices of short-term put...

Greeks_live

Bitcoin trading activity is now significantly impacted by U.S. stock trading hours, with trading activity being less active over the weekend and the market being more subdued. Almost all of today's Block trades were traded in spread, with sell call bull spreads traded the most, followed by sell put bear spreads, and market sentiment for BTC&ETH has been relatively...

Greeks_live

This week is an important macro week, with a number of major central banks, represented by the Fed's interest rate decision, set to announce interest rate decisions. Despite the general market expectation of consensus, the rate outcome and related central bank statements are still noteworthy. With strong economic data from the U.S., the odds are that this outcome...

Greeks_live

Bitcoin turned on a 10,000-USD plunge after a successful run at new all-time highs, at one point dropping below $60,000. Derivatives data, represented by futures basis spreads, went off across the board, with a flash crash at the peak of bullish Fomo sentiment. On the options, against the backdrop of the 10,000-USD plunge, options IVs for all major terms instead...

Greeks_live

This week is a big macro week, with U.S. unemployment data and some major central bank interest rate resolutions of note, and the main crypto-related event is the SEC's pending resolution of the Fidelity ethereum spot ETF application, which is highly unlikely to pass and the market now agrees is not likely. Spot buyers in the mainstream cryptocurrency market...