Diabolicus

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About me architect. anarchist. agnostic.
Joined Germany
New paradigm - this time it's different! ™
Markets Allocation
56 % cryptocurrency 44 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
MTGOX:BTCUSD 32% | 8 BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 16% | 4 OKCOIN:BTCUSD 12% | 3 BITFINEX:BTCUSD 12% | 3
Diabolicus Diabolicus ETHBTC, 240, Long ,
ETHBTC: ETHBTC Consolidation
215 0 4
ETHBTC, 240 Long
ETHBTC Consolidation

For the past 3 months ETHBTC has been consolidating inside a larger triangle pattern (blue). Yesterday, price broke away from a lower S/R level near 0.0235 and reached once again the 0.02725 zone which acted as support and resistance multiple times during March / April (green box). In doing so, it completed the wolfe wave pattern (yellow, to the right,) reaching ...

Diabolicus Diabolicus ETHXBT, 60, Long ,
ETHXBT: ETH Wolfe Wave completed
67 0 2
ETHXBT, 60 Long
ETH Wolfe Wave completed

ETH Wolfe Wave went for a 5 prime position (yellow), suggesting a retracement to the point 4 level. with overshoot likely due to low liquidity. Short entry above point 4, with stop loss above 1-4 target line. Disclaimer: I don't trade ETH.

Diabolicus Diabolicus BTCCNY, 30,
BTCCNY: China ready to blow off a little more steam
131 1 3
BTCCNY, 30
China ready to blow off a little more steam

China painted this Gartley with near perfect proportions. I give it a greater 50% chance of reaching point C from here, thus returning into that uptrend channel. With the china spread still above 7.5%, once the flood gates open the bottom of that channel might not hold, watch closely. Break above D invalidates this setup, of course. Disclaimer: I'm in no ...

Diabolicus Diabolicus BTCUSD, 240, Long ,
BTCUSD: More Upside Possible
222 1 2
BTCUSD, 240 Long
More Upside Possible

Price deviated strongly from the moving averages, up to 40%. As the Bitfinex panic spike didn't replicate across other exchanges on might leave that aside and stick to the 18% deviation of the 2nd low instead. In the past, such strong declines were often followed by slightly less intense overcompensation to the upside, usually within 1-2 weeks. I expect a ...

Diabolicus Diabolicus BTCUSD, 240,
BTCUSD: BTC bulls might take a rest here
143 3 6
BTCUSD, 240
BTC bulls might take a rest here

Price has shown some nice reactions to the 100% (blue) and 61.8% (green) as well as 25% (yellow) channels of this pitchfork. Right now we are hovering slightly above the center, en route to point B of the current correction (yellow). Should price bounce off of the 61.8% line at B (275$) as expected, then a retest of at least 260$ is in order. Medium Target and ...

Diabolicus Diabolicus DRKBTC, 120, Short ,
DRKBTC: Dash deflation continues
48 0 0
DRKBTC, 120 Short
Dash deflation continues

Dash bottom still to come, I believe. If this tops here, we might dip sub 0.010 before any further corrections take place.

Diabolicus Diabolicus (BTCUSD*3+BTCUSD*3+BTCUSD*2+BTCCNY*0.32+XBTEUR*1.36)/11, 5, Short ,
(BTCUSD*3+BTCUSD*3+BTCUSD*2+BTCCNY*0.32+XBTEUR*1.36)/11: Pika Pika!
Pika Pika!

All fear the mighty Weekend-Dipkatchu!

Diabolicus Diabolicus BTCUSD, 30, Long ,
BTCUSD: The bull case
115 3 1
BTCUSD, 30 Long
The bull case

bullish sunday, sidways monday targets: short 630 long 575 short 660 long 640

Diabolicus Diabolicus BTCUSD, D,
BTCUSD: Consolidation
409 0 1
BTCUSD, D
Consolidation

If history repeats itself, we might be in for another month of boring sideways action from here on, before we retest higher grounds. Past consolidation periods took between 4 and 6 1/2 weeks to resolve, and price action remained in a range of ~9-14% below the last peak. (SR event excluded) However, given the recent overall bullish developments (at least in the ...

Diabolicus Diabolicus (BTCUSD*3+BTCUSD*3+BTCUSD*2+BTCCNY*0.32+XBTEUR*1.36)/11, 120, Short ,
(BTCUSD*3+BTCUSD*3+BTCUSD*2+BTCCNY*0.32+XBTEUR*1.36)/11: Bearful Thinking
Bearful Thinking

Basically just a summary of some bearish thoughts for the next few days: - Resistance at 530-550 is likely strong, see former price action. - A moderate 38-50% retracement after the recent rallye would be healthy. - Confirmation of the long term trendline is possible and desireable, but due to the overall bullishness price might not reach that line completely. ...

Diabolicus Diabolicus BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: New ATH ahead?
678 2 4
BTCUSD, D Long
New ATH ahead?

After november's parabolic price explosion and a bearish december full of corrections, we are now trending upwards again in a channel which we already know from october. Since the Silk Road dip 3 months ago price rose by ~+2%/day on average. During that same period, difficulty and hash rate of the network also grew by ~+2%/day. Provided fundamentals don't change, ...

Diabolicus Diabolicus BTCUSD, 240, Long ,
BTCUSD: Correction of Downtrend
375 0 4
BTCUSD, 240 Long
Correction of Downtrend

With 4hr MACD crossing imminent, there is the possibility of more upward movement today. However make no mistake, since deposits in China are still broken this probably won't go anywhere as high as plotted out here, this is just my most optimistic scenario. As soon as this intermediate uptrend weakens I believe we will see new lower lows (<400 would not suprise me).

Diabolicus Diabolicus BTCUSD, 15, Short ,
BTCUSD: Bear Market continues
495 5 6
BTCUSD, 15 Short
Bear Market continues

Today's bad news from China has helped accelerate the deflation of the current market and might take us back to a lower trend channel. Unless I see a convincing close above the upper main trendline (grey) I remain short. Trading the swings might be tempting, but we all know how quickly this market changes sentiment, so be careful.

Diabolicus Diabolicus BTCUSD, 15,
BTCUSD: 12 hour forecast
274 1 1
BTCUSD, 15
12 hour forecast

We might see a retracement here for the next few hours, until China wakes up again to cheap(er than Gox) coins. sub 400$ possible, yet not too likely. As there is still the possibility of that ask wall @400 on Bitstamp getting eaten (and I don't have time to watch this closely the next hours), I won't trade this dip.

Diabolicus Diabolicus BTCUSD, 15, Short ,
BTCUSD: Another dip befre resuming uptrend
212 2 0
BTCUSD, 15 Short
Another dip befre resuming uptrend

Maybe the DDOS did succeed after all and we see another dip to the trendline before we go back to da moon.

Diabolicus Diabolicus BTCUSD, 60, Long ,
BTCUSD: 2-day Forecast
369 1 3
BTCUSD, 60 Long
2-day Forecast

Throughout the past week we've repeatedly seen the same pattern here: Market trending upward on low or medium volume for 12-24 hours straight, more or less parallel to the larger trend, then at some point acceleration of the trend, followed by only moderate profit taking, which still resulted in 10-15% corrections due to thin order books on the bid side. After ...

Diabolicus Diabolicus BTCUSD, 60, Long ,
BTCUSD: Wishful Thinking
229 1 1
BTCUSD, 60 Long
Wishful Thinking

Probability: perhaps ~10%, but increasing with every day the US debt ceiling issue remains unresolved

Diabolicus Diabolicus BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: Crossroads
457 0 3
BTCUSD, D Long
Crossroads

The lower trendline of the current two month uptrend has been tested repeatedly. If we break below ~130 we might see at best further corrections of the upward pushes from August, or at worst the start of a new downtrend if the doubletop formation gets confirmed, somewhere below ~125-120. However, the trend seems still intact for now, so unless some fundamental ...

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