It looks like the golden arrow I drew a month ago is holding firm and the uptrend continues inside the green channel. Nervousness about the Brexit referendum could cause jitters over the next six weeks. A vote to leave the EU would cause a down-spike, but would be followed by protracted negotiations in which actual trading changes would be gradual rather than...
If the graph bounces off Support Line S1, then the current downslope is likely to continue. If it revives before it meets S!, the indications are that the downtrend will continue no further. If it drops to S2, a sharper downslope is indicated.
The trend is shown by the dashed blue line. The purple box shows my last prediction. The trend is downwards. Where the swings will go is less obvious.
I observe that the expected acceleration in the uptrend of the Euro against the US Dollar appears to be happening: the green block indicates the new channel. It seems the market is happy that Brexit will not occur and will bet on both the Euro and Sterling rising.
If the present down-swing takes a gentle down-slope, then the indications are that it will be half-hearted and that a break through the "Wall of Resistance" is imminent in the next upswing.
In my last post, I drew attention to a Wall of Resistance that has yet to be breached by the Euro in its attempt to rise in value versus the US Dollar. It is now heading towards the Wall once more. Will it breach the Wall? Probably not in this assault; It will, I think, swing down as soon as it touches the wall, to launch a stronger assault next time.
This time last year, many punters were expecting the Euro to keep falling until it reached parity with the US Dollar. Then on the Ides of March 2015 the trend reversed. Since then EUR/USD has met a wall of resistance at $1.146. Now on a downswing, we wait to see if its next rebound (from around $1.10) will take it crashing through this wall.
I expect a downswing now.Question is: where will this downswing bottom? If at the purple Support Line, we are now in an uptrend. Otherwise, the downtrend continues, and why not?
Paradoxically, it is bad economic news that caused the markets to rebound, and, apparently, right out of the downtrend. Poor figures led to the FED announcing that the interest rate hikes will be slowed for the rest of the year, and this led to the rise in share prices as money headed back to shares rather than bonds. We may, however, now be at a peak, from which...
In January, I drew the dotted-green "Projected Upslope 2016," based on the long-term pattern. The Euro has trended upwards against the US Dollar since then, keeping just clear of the projected upslope. The Support Zone (green triangle) was breached, indicating a modification of the Channel: the purple box. Taking this as a guide, I would say that the graph is...
The Euro is in the Support Zone I drew in a previous post. I expect it to swing up from here. However, there is a possibility that the forthcoming British referendum on leaving or staying in the EU may cast a shadow and tempt the market into pushing the Euro down against the US Dollar. Caution is warranted: watch for the beginning of the rebound before betting on...
Over the last 6 weeks the downtrend of the Dow has stalled. There is still quite a distance of downward movement to go before the correction is complete. Another downswing is imminent.
Having broken decisively through Resistance Line A, this phase of the NASDAQ 100 downtrend is at an end. Resistance Line B has also to be breached before the overall downtrend can be seen to have ended. Even then, it does not seem likely that the recovery will go as far as Line C. I am guessing (if the index does not plummet through the 5-year Support Line,...
Bouncing off my red curve, NASDAQ swings downward. Since a change in trend direction may be imminent, we are uncertain how far the downswing will go. It may not reach the green curve, but, then again, it might crash right through it. If it does, it has a long way to go. If it does not, we see that a bottom is forming to the downtrend.
The plunge I predicted in my last post on the NASDAQ did not materialise. Instead the graph broke through Resistance Line A. We can't say that the downtrend is finally over until the graph breaks through Resistance Line B. In the meantime, the downtrend has softened. I will not bet on the current upswing breaking through the red curved line, nor the ensuing...
The EUR/USD continues to swing up and down within its channel. The downswings tend to be gentler than the upswings. The current downswing is likely to continue at a gentle pace until the graph touches or enters the Support Zone. I remain neutral for the moment.
The ten-day rebound of the Nasdaq is over. The green arrow indicates how the graph will plunge over the next few days.