On August 15th, the S&P 500 quotation has reached 2,193.90
The monthly candle of August is a 'spinning top'.
I am bearish (long term view) this indices with a stop loss just above 2,202 and expect a close for September just around 2,133.
My first short term target is around 1,650
After a 34 years old down trend, this chart shows an away from equilibrium positioning.
For the US bonds 30 years, the price fractal might complete just few pips below 2% interest rate.
This is going to be a key moment in capital markets.
Scenario 1: EURUSD build a corrective wave under the shape of a zig-zag (w-x-y) ending around 1.20 and USDX reaches down towards 90 or even 88
Scenario 2: EURUSD prints a triangle (a-b-c-d-e) and USDX leaves behind 92.40 as a relevant low.
Other currency pairs in the Dollar index shall bring their own influence.
The price is currently printing a triangle (a-b-c-d-e).
The alternative count is for a zig zag (alt w - alt x - alt y)
No matter which of the two, on a medium term, the exchange rate shall go well below parity.
101.50 has proven a strong support back in December 1999, December 2004 and for other 6 months in 2014.
The price action around the 200 months moving average and 200 weeks moving average shall bring even more clarity.
Considering a long position against the low of 98.70
Seeing the low of May 3 as the price bottom of a 3 wave correction for the previous leg up from 72 to 100.
If that proves right, aim above 114 and towards 120.
A more complex correction, with a low in the area of 89 or 90, shall not be excluded.
If weekly closings stay under 1250, my bias remains bearish .
My concern is the December's monthly candle which might suggest that 1060 was an important price level, and if that's the case, this run will print its way higher.