Ok, getting back to basics here guys. Enough with the snark haha... for now. Leaving my March crash repeat setup here just for comparison, not as an expected path or trend. Volume will still be interesting to follow here. Holding pretty close so far! This little crash definitely took some pressure off RSI but it's clear we're still well in overbought territory...
Wild day! TRIN moved to almost exactly neutral but at the end of a megaphone structure while transitioning into a wide upchannel towards PANIC SELL this is very bearish. At this point, if it flips back above 2 (assuming the structures hold, this is increasingly likely with each passing day) the market is likely toast and crash/panic selloff/programmatic selloff...
THIS CONTENT CENSORED BY TRADINGVIEW Sorry guys, looks like my rant yesterday explaining how Big Money and the Fed are running a massive pump and dump scheme got censored here. Maybe it was too "overtly political" or maybe it was the giant middle finger I drew on my original chart that I pretended was an outlined exclamation point with stars shooting out from...
Ramp angle is flattening since March, which is a great sign and matches almost exactly to the yellow ramp angle before the spike in March (I copied it over directly). Volume roughly on track to match March spike too. Fed unloaded one of their big news items today: markets.businessinsider.com Yay! More corporate bailout to keep the FOMO pump alive! Barely made...
Goin under today or tomorrow and after that we can mostly expect a slide down...
I touched on the TRIN already here... Wanted to take another angle. Since the bounce, it has followed almost exactly to a megaphone pattern. Those horizontal red and green lines are the indicator default, above red is SELL below green is BUY and in between in HOLD. This is leaning very heavily into SELL and consistently holding PANIC SELL levels (>2). We'll...
Lets find out if history will repeat itself or how far it will diverge B). Indicators and history signaling this spike has lots of room to run.
I just duplicated over the March crash and volume trend. Mostly will be interesting to see if it follows a similar pattern or takes a completely different form of crash. So far volume is a near perfect match! Check that DPO holding strong while RSI indicators tank. This market got a long way down to go. Let's see how it plays out B).
I dunno, doesn't look great man.
My first direct mashup of SPX and TVIX. I created a Relative Value Index to directly compare these two. TVIX low was $109 on June 5th with an RVI of 3... an order of magnitude drop from the TVIX peak. Since then the RVI has doubled to 6 and should continue uptrend into July. RVI peaked at 7 today ((201/3047)*100) but settled at 6 ((169/3041)*100). Currently...
Haven't updated my main full-scope SPX chart in awhile. Already hitting my predicted resistance, I just added a couple additional red lines to account for it eventually dropping all the way down to the yellow lines. Yellow = Long Term Trend Supports (Strongest) Green = Major Horizontal Trend Supports (Stronger) Red = Support/Resistance Points (Strong) Lets see...
What a coincidence! Market stuck at one of the final support/resistance points before the top on Thursday. Gap up was necessary to clear it and keep the FOMO pump going lol.
Just posting up a clean and more refined version of my idea from yesterday... And my idea from last week: The data points to these being our best value ranges. My best pre-election low call is 2100 and it's going to come sooner rather than later. We could still see a swing down to 1600 but that would happen after the election not before. Let's see how this...
Assuming this next crash roughly matches the last one, a bet on VIX today at $40 would stand to net you up to $80. A bet on TVIX (which is 2x the velocity/risk of VIX) however at $200 would stand to net you up to $1000. So in VIX a $100 bet now has confirmed potential of turning into $200 for a 100% ROI. On TVIX a $100 bet now has confirmed potential of...
I don't know what this really means, just got a tip that it's odd and wanted to bring some clarity for those who do understand.
This is what the data is saying, I'm just the messenger :). Watch out for the dark red areas, will slip extra fast!
I've been calling this for three weeks now and been holding most my TVIX since May 18th among other inverse plays. Just made some revisions to my OG idea and cleaned up the lines a bit to try to dial in the up spike here. Here's all your entry and exit price targets from May 26th: All that holds the same today. TVIX still much better risk/reward than VIX. We...
Ok people, things are about ready to boil over here. Everyone is holding their breath and crossing their fingers that all the economic data dropping first week of June 'won't be as bad as expected' so the market will then rebound. It's all hopes and dreams though. It's gonna be worse, decent chance of MUCH worse. If we get to the end of June, and I have to sell...