[TVIX] March Spike Model... 1100 High on July 13th!

Lets find out if history will repeat itself or how far it will diverge B).

Indicators and history signaling this spike has lots of room to run.


I've been waiting for this TVIX trade. I bought Wednesday afternoon. Held all day Friday. Almost bailed, but honestly ran out of time and didn't get to it.

F*#% it, I'm just gonna ride or die. TVIX is going to 800. I'm all in.
+3 Reply
mak337 srhays
@srhays, Same boat. Restless weekend, but futures looking beautifully red.
+1 Reply
@srhays @mak337 I’ve been holding since May 18th, ain’t so bad.
Starting to fear that VIX will head back into the mid/low 20s before it pops again. It will pop again, but timing is everything with TVIX.
+2 Reply
@mak337, Impossible, market too volatile now and too many factors lining up to spark/continue a crash this month. Only outside chance we see VIX $20 before mid-July.
mak337 ProfitHarvest
@ProfitHarvest, I think you're right, but if SPY can back to 2200, then VIX will be back at 25. There have been a few earlier VIX spikes since the March rocket, though not as big as this one, but it may need to bounce a little more before another rocket. Watching very closely, hedging the TVIX play with some SPXL. 3080 is big test for SPX.
+1 Reply
@mak337, No not necessarily!

Remember that volatility is the side hedge of inverse markets. It works in your favor.

Last time TVIX held at $160 like this the market was only at 2920 on May 19th.

So now wer're +150 point but TVIX still $160... hmm.... how is that possible? Because volatility is increasing, which increases the value of inverse market investments.

In other words, even if SPY did hit 2200, it's likely VIX would find a new higher level to settle at given all extraneous volatility factors that still remain and grow more serious with each passing day (recession, trade wares, coronavirus, unemployment, reduced consumer and business spending, etc.)
piscitear ProfitHarvest
@ProfitHarvest, All I doubt is how Fed can avoid it. Cuz so far we've had wrong unemployment data in May, so-called 2nd round stimulus, nice low interest rate promised till 2022, Pompeo (I'll wash my mouth after saying his name) will meet China to alleviate current conflict, today's good numbers... Although it'd be reasonable to see TVIX goes up, Fed casino may not want to see it so soon, and they can probably release more beautiful data strategically.
+1 Reply
ProfitHarvest piscitear
@piscitear, Naw our Complainer in Chief needs a crash June/July/August so the market can bounce back and make record GAINS going into election.

Narrative is MUCH more useful politically than sideways trend for months or even slight, steady increases. Not to mention trying to prop a sideways trend is like carrying a ticking time bomb. They can't risk that going off Sep/Oct, they'd be screwed.

I still can't believe that no one knows the unemployment numbers were misreported both April and May by a few points. The BLS even admit it but basically say they don't give a shit as long as it looks better for Mein Fuhrer.
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