Long: (1) Triangle Breakout coming (2) Strong US Dollar. I've been fighting the trend to no avail. Don't fight the tape! Comment: It seems as though the world is pouring into the dollar to buy something. It could be the following: (1) In order to buy most commodities you must buy the dollar. So, Investors could be buying the dollar and waiting for the...
All we need is just more bears to pike into a Bull layer of support. There is no reason for a drop in the probability to the rate hike expectations of the UK, but that is wht happened. I truly believe there will be a rate hike. I have written on this before and what I have studied. Of course, I could be wrong, but if I am correct, then this is just the...
It seems that the Yen TWI is awakening after falling to 50% weekly fib suppor. No one know if it will hold. No further evidence has shown up on the weekly chart, but it is reacting at this level. Weekly View: Daily View: 8 Hour view:
Bull because: (1) Triangle breakout to the upside. (2) I believe that the US Dollar is in a bear market and will keep falling over the course of the coming months. Psychological: Being patient is tough. Following the secular momentum makes sense on higher time frames because people don't move or walk at lightning speeds. They have to stand in line to make...
Pattern Analysis: Cup-with-Handle Pattern slowly accumulating power and strength into a multi-weekly and multi-quarterly rally. Volume Analysis: I have my own way of interpreting volume the way I see it, not published anywhere. I probably should write it down. Ah.. never-mind. Who really cares. haha! But, the first blue volume arrow showed accumulation...
I posted my economic and fundamental views in other posts. I am going to bed.
Commodities, Channels and Economics; Oh My! I wrote about the Canadian economy previously. They have already squared a deal with America's tariffs: Trump Repeats Bush's Tariff on Steel: Bring Back Good Ol' Days? I wrote about "CAD/CHF and Oil: Carry trade and Interest Rate Differential"; however, some brokers do not give your the interest (so be careful. It...
Out with the dollar in with HKD and other currencies. Just testing out a pattern as well.
AUD and NZD are diverging fundamentally and economically. New Zealand : New Zealand's CPI is expected to weaken and labor market projections are expected to tighten. They are not expected to even consider raising rates until the second half of next year. Australia Australia : According to Business Insider and other news outlets and the RBA itself, the RBA...
Bond Spreads: I took a look at EURJPY 10 year and 2 year yield spread of German and Japan. It appears that the rally is not supported by the yield spread; however, I read some news that USDJPY has decoupled from its spread along with AUDUSD, so I don't know what to think here about this. EURJPY's yield spread looks better than the yield spread of USDJPY and...
GBPNZD still remains an undervalued currency pair. GBPNZD is still a good pair to trade given the valuation differentials of the two currencies. NZD wants to fall and GBP is is undervalued. The pair still remain is the MOST undervalued pair relative to the major pairs and the GBP trade-weighted value. It is worth about 2.50ish or so, fundamentally. It still...
Given the US Dollar is falling on a long-term basis and the recent sentiment in NZD from last week's dairy prices,, I think that this would make a nice trade. Also, NZD/USD seems to be showing a market behavioral pattern called an Inverted Head and Shoulders variant. I have entered the trade with a 60 pip stop and a 200 pip tentative target. I could care less...
I think I have already posted this. I have shorted USDJPY last month. Well, posting it about for the record.
SEASONALITY in GBPUSD. This is not the GBP trade-weighted currency itself, but only the GBPUSD pair. So, the result will be different than the GBP TWI. This is the 39th Year that GBPUSD normally goes up every April. This is due to the following: Seasonality (1) End/Start of the UK tax year. (2) Heavy month of dividend payments (repatriation) by U.K. companies....
Economic-Fundamentals: (1) Seasonality in GBP TWI (2) GBP Central Bank is Hawkish and the US dollar is in a down trend (3) Reduction in political uncertainty - EU/UK Agreed on a transition (4) Local environment ripe: The UK public sector wage cap will increase! Technical: (1) Engulfing Bullish Pattern+Morning star (2) hor. support+diagonal support (3) 38% fib...