Elon Cracks a Beer open on May 24 weekend in 2020. MSM : Past performance is not an indication of future results. Elon : Hold my Beer The run up to TSLA splits are always exciting. Who doesn’t want this stock? If there is an after split rally like the other mega caps and TSLA in 2020 we should see this ascending triangle setup nicely for a run up to...
Is Inflation in your Cup! This idea is following my previous post about how to Straddle an Ascending Triangle. After that Straddle plays out a Cup and Handle could form. The current admin forgot they need to turn off the spigot to stop inflation. Want a strong economy? employment. Employment burns fuel. Firms are trying to get employees back in offices....
For info on Ascending Triangle, check out my previous AMZN chart. XLE consolidated 2 weeks prior to form an Ascending Triangle on the 4hr chart. The 2 week period at the end of July XLE gained 20% . This sets up a Great risk/reward around a sector with NG on the move. Don’t count out the oil bull either. While markets were bearish overall, XLE was...
4100 seems to be the price area where the market is in equilibrium. Still some downside to 4000 in my opinion. Some chop around 4100 while market consolidates the recent Rally. 0.618 retracement to the downside may find support. On the other hand, markets may try to close the gap at 4220 before the end of the week. Either direction seems like a lot of...
Must come down. I get that energy futures NG1! is running and everyone expects energy to have a very strong winter. How is highest energy prices and lowering inflation work for the upcoming election? Somethings got to give. My position is currently long on SWN following a bull flag and ascending triangle to profit, then wait and see if the head & shoulder...
The collar resets the last business day of Feb, May, Aug, and Nov. This is the smallest of the 3 funds JPMorgan manages with a collar. At 3 billion in assets, the impacts on markets are still relevant. The options for the 3rd fund are not as well known, but using the reset date and the fact they use SPX options I’m able to make a guess at the relevant sizes and...
The Island Reversal pattern is when increased distributions in overnight activity cause gaps up and eventually volume exhaustion a second gap down forming an island of candles. The Island Reversal can be Bullish (inverted island) or a Bearish Island and is preceded by lengthy trends with a reversal trend the other way. No real profit targets for the island...
What is a Mortgage Backed Security? A Mortgage Backed Security are shares of a Special Purpose Entity (SPE) that holds mortgages. Whenever someone buys a home they usually purchase it with a mortgage. Investment Banks (underwriters) put up the capital and create a mortgage agreement with the home owner. Banks don’t want to carry the risk of mortgages...
Want to know what I think caused this latest bear rally? This chart of SPX is broken into quarters that represent when the very large JHEQX hedge that rolls over the funds put credit spread. The funds put options netted most of the funds profit in q2 fuelled by sell offs in technology. In Q1 I thought a market wide sell off would net the fund 2B but Vanna Flows...
I make most of mistakes when my bias is too bullish or bearish and I miss opportunities on the other side of the trade. I find it useful to take a step back, clear off my indicators, channels and patterns and look at where we are in the markets with a fresh unbiased opinion. You'll often find me posting about being bearish while charting bullish patterns and...
There are a lot of discussions about whether or not the 2022 corrections bottom is in. This idea attempts to compare the 2022 bear market correction with 2008. Peak to Trough, the 2008 GFC lasted 17 months. The 2020 and 2022 corrections were both nearly identical in price, but recovery in 2020 was assisted with QE while 2022 face increased tightening. The...
My trade plan for next week and September is sell. I'm anticipating a sell off over the next few weeks as a perfect storm is brewing. My opinion is that there is still downside to this bear market. The bond market is hot garbage and there are signs pointing to 2008 levels. The dollar broke its parabolic rise earlier this month with equities rallying,...
GREETINGS PROFESSOR. Hello. HOW ARE YOU FEELING TODAY? I'm fine. How are you? EXCELLENT. IT'S BEEN OVER A YEAR NOW SINCE YOU LOGGED IN. CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHY YOU HAVE NOT LOGGED IN SINCE JUNE 18th, 2021 People sometimes make mistak YES THEY DO. SHALL WE PLAY A GAME? Love To. How about a game of Global Stock Markets. WOULDN'T YOU PREFER A GOOD GAME OF...
I spend most of my time watching for secular movements in markets. Bulls shifting bearish at tops Bears shifting bullish at bottoms There are a multitude of reasons markets move up and down and form trend channels. The channels may not always be the same as there are so many factors that make up a channel. QE for example gave us a steep upwards channel that...
#2 Ascending Triangle The 2nd most bullish pattern is the Ascending Triangle. The Ascending Triangle is formed after an initial trend higher and is typically a consolidation before price continues higher. The price oscillation during consolidation consists of at least 2 swing highs and 2 swing lows. Eventually price meets at the top of the triangle and a...
Ranked at #3 in the Bullish Pattern series is the Cup and Handle Pattern. Cup and handle pattern typically takes many months to form but the pattern is unmistakable similar to a cup with a handle. The pattern begins with a sell off with volume, tapering off and remaining flat before volume picks up and forms the right side of the cup. There are 2 types of Cup...
Next in the series of Bull Patterns is the Bull Flag. The bull flag is usually the result of a strong up trend followed by consolidation of price that can lead to a continuation of the bullish up trend. The three main traits of a bull flag are: A) Pole - Rise in Price B) Flag - Consolidation Channel C) Breakout - Measured by Flag Pole, Confirmed with...
My August prediction may be toast now. 420 on spy puts us right at 0.5 reversal from Jan 2022 High of 479.98 CPI came in lower than expected and the reaction was a gap in RTH at 411.35. Volume has been really low during this move higher as shown by volume bubbles (size and transparency) RSI is approaching overbought on daily. Still, I haven’t been...