It's that time of year again where profit taking and panic could drive the price back to the mean average.
This is a good place to lock in profits if you are long.
I expect a sudden and swift move down to hit the stops followed by a small pump into late November to put in the ceiling and start another down trend.
Given that the average price of Daily/H8/H4 are currently trending down I expect this setup to be valid and start playing out shortly.
USD might pull a Lazarus here giving some relief to the folks trapped in those longs from a month ago.
Given the lack of exuberance I expected to see at rally Point A when the stops would be hit I felt the need to re-examine the chart and make updates.
Blow you will see how the trend, although slowed, is still in place with Bitcoin under the new resistance. The overall pattern I have drawn will remain for now.
Barring a exuberance on price rally my outlook...
This is a classic Wyckoff "Return To Normal" market cycle in action. Don't try to buy the pull backs. You will just get destroyed in the process as it quickly moves against you when it starts. My ideal area to short is at the mean area marked by the yellow flag.
I am prepared to short sooner. I wish you all the best. I hope it works out in your favor.
I'm not a gold or silver bug but it's no secret that I never sell metals at discounts.
This is the gold/silver ratio AUGUSD. Historically, silver has always been about 16:1. It's even mentioned in the US Constitution.
We know Comex (Crimex) loves to trade paper. We also know they were forced to take the BS silver short position during the 2008 debacle.
There's a 200 and 240 EMA up here on the H4 bar which is perhaps the reason for the wick on daily and price rejection to go higher.
Nevertheless it closed outside engulfing down on the H4. This is my first entry to get short for the long term.
As a trend follower I often times am conflicted with what I think is right and what price is doing.
This is one of those times. Nevertheless I always follow my rules.
Here is a EURGBP short setup with trend lines, price projection and profit target if you would like to follow along.
This could get interesting quickly.
The last couple of times there were financial problems with the Fed and they started messing with rates. As you can see each time there is a down turn in recent history we've had historical corrections to the down side or extreme bear markets.
It looks like we're rolling over yet one more time. What will they do tomorrow? Lower the rates? Start up QE...
I wasn't expecting Powell to reverse the dollar direction on last Friday. However I was able to take some profit off the trade.
EURUSD is currently in a pull back sell zone on H4. I am looking for a continuation down. Many analysts are saying to short dollar but I don't think it's quite ready to sell down as of yet.
Sell stops for this trade are below a 20%...
Monthly Bearish ABCD Setup for 2019 forming on DXY.
EU is also set for a rally to the upside beginning in first quarter 2019.
Given that the dollar could very well enter a bear market here I fully expect that the deflationary period we've been experiencing will soon come to an end and that an inflationary period (possibly hyperinflation) could soon slam US...
They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Pay attention to what's happening here with the bond spreads.
Over the past few years we see that when the spreads are down and ticked up that we have a serious problem in the markets.
As you can see here we are back at the same setup from the past two market crashes.