The prices seem to follow the top triangle formation (refer to chart). We estimate a decisive down turn in near future after the triangle zig-zag formation is exhausted eventually. There could also be a double shoulder H&S formation in the making. We will watch. Note that a decisive breakout of this pattern in the down direction for the UKOIL, may coincide with...
USDCAD seems to be following a triangle formation. Currently we are close to the top line of that triangle (some pips away). For short term traders, there could be still a quick in and out for profit, however for longer term traders (trades based on days or weeks), this is a premature up move and we require more signals and confirmations to commit ourselves for a...
Retracement to .382 Fibonacci, where higher TF support exists and where the 5th bull wave may start.
We are still bearish with oil, given all the bearish signs (listed on the chart). We were expecting a faster down turn for a 3rd wave, however the market went back up invalidating the ABC count, before the 3rd wave. Instead the upmove expanded to 0.764 Fib level. This may indicate a complex top formation in the making. Currently, we will watch whether the Oil...
The main 5 wave count still holds. Seems like we are in a 3rd wave down of a higher TF 5th wave (refer to chart). However no recommendation for a short position, as we are close to support. Will the next Support level hold? The odds are higher, especially if we see a clear completion of 5th wave.
We were predicting a final 5th wave for the US Dollar in previous posts (pls refer to previous published charts). Today, it seems like that the 5th wave of USD bear trend proceeded as expected and currently it is coming to an end (even though it has not completed it's course at minor time frames, as we speak). From this point on we shall look for bull signals to...
As suggested before, the Oil prices are making hourly corrections after a full wave pattern (1 to 5) has completed down. Currently corrective wave C seems to be in the making. From the completion of Wave C, we shall be on the look for sharp breakout in the down direction. If such a move occurs, it could be a good position to buy USD against CAD.
Currently we are detecting a pattern resembling 5 wave (see chart) coinciding with resistance (see pink box). Could this be the completion of the 1st major wave down? Could this be followed by a corrective 2nd wave (may be ABC) triggering a major 3rd wave? Who knows... However, If so, a very good short position may be ahead of us. Watch Oil and related commodity...
We were waiting for a strong down thrust and we can classify yesterdays daily bar a strong down-bar. Thus we are somewhat convinced that the uptrend is over for oil. Being always on the cautious side, we shall look for developing patterns on the down trend and whether this trend change will hold. We will wait for the first major retracement against this move to...
We still stick to our initial view and waiting for decisive completion of the 5th wave shown on chart. to 11730-11740 levels. Today's Unemployment rate announcement is important and makes markets jittery.
1-major resistance (2010) 2-rising wedge formation 3-channel upper trend reached 4-possible ABC formation 5-shooting star Japanese candle (daily) 6-Inverted hammer Japanese candle (weekly) 7-MACD Divergence 8-@ Fibonacci 0.382 Waiting for more confirmation. May be a decisive down thrust.
On this daily chart, we observe a classic "Rising Wedge" formation. By definition (refer to Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by John Magee) it is a pattern where there is "a gradual petering out of investment interest. Prices advance but each new up wave is feebler than the last" . Also we can see an irregular ABC pattern again (typical of corrective waves). As...
Our previous analysis correctly estimated an end to the 4th wave (ABC) irregular pattern, where the prices indeed turned lower and quite fast. We foresaw a drop up to 11740 levels. Currently, we are not far from this level. Current wave count indicates that we may be at the last leg of the 5th wave, which started may 5th. Will we see a down move up to 11740 on...
We can see that the correctional uptrend is at the boundary of a major long term resistance (Jun 2010). If the correction is an ABC pattern, which could very well be, than we may see oil prices winding down back to 44$ a barrel from the current level of 70$. Now, what would that mean? We know that USD/CAD pair is highly oversold and at levels, where a bounce back...
Here we see a strong Correctional move reaching almost 0.618 Fibonacci level, measured from the beginning of the leg. This would mean increased interest and enthusiasm to buy USD against Canadian and covering shorts. This further signals that there would be a considerable upturn from 1.196 levels, if the price ever reaches that point. On hold for now.
End of 3rd and 4th waves. 4th wave is an ABC formation up trend. Seems like that there is a Head &Shoulders formation for the 4th wave uptrend at 38.2% Fibonacci measured from 2th wave. Currently there is a sharp retraction to the H&S trendline. This Retraction is important. In classical terms signifies continuation of bear trend for the USD Index. We estimate a...
We exited long at the right moment on Friday, after realizing that the count did not fit the traditional 5 wave but rather a possible ABC pattern. Today's bear move validated it. Our target is 1.196 to look for a new long position.
Irregular Head and Shoulders pattern formed a few weeks ago, with a fast pullback to the line of base. This move was suspicious and thus we liquidated all US dollar holdings. Was a smart move. Next step: Waiting for a LONG opportunity when US$ starts bouncing back.