So, bulls have manged to take control and make a stand, but it´s a long way to go back to a steady up-trend.
- Long-term down-trend resistance has been broken (good sign).
- Falling wedge reversal pattern confirmed, so we can expect its target (11-12k approx.) at least.
- As for medium-term, we need to step back to 2014 and see that a broken long-term...
What I see:
- Wave 1 and 2 clearly ended.
- Wave 3 ended and 4 developing...but! i don´t know if we may expect some extensions... I think this is not the case.
- Wave 4 still in development: a 5 wave structure passed indicating a zig zag correction.
For B wave: 50% retracement at least, so 12k top
For C wave: I think the 3k level is just fine, breaking...
This is we can expect in this small time frame:
- Firs ABC correction to local support, reaching 0.786 - 0.618 level.
- Second impulse to test the falling wedge resistance.
So the options are:
1 - This is an ABC correction that will be rejected at wedge resistance.
2 - This is an ABC correction but in a large time frame so we can expect one more impulse.
- AO indicator shows no divergence yet, so we may expect one more impulse to complete a local 5 wave cycle.
- Stoch RSI showing overbought indicates a possible decline in demand.
- There´s an strong support at 6200 level, so we may expect bounce there.
So for short term i´m shorting and waiting to see what happen at 6200 level.
If bounce happens and volume keeps...