We are looking at 57,200 for a possible sell off. We don't expect this to be a major one however, but just a small pullback leading back to the 60k region.
We expect a lot of choppiness around 60 to 65k. This will be fun to trade!
Imagine for a minute that the Corona dump in March of 2020 had NOT happened....
Then that 'local top' (1) that formed before hand in June 2019 - would start to look a lot like the recent local top this year (2).
If history repeated then we could be looking at something like the blue projection.
Of course this is highly speculative, but it's worth considering that...
Bitcoin loves to trade in obvious triangle patterns and then trick everyone by having massive 'fakeouts' - moves outside of the structure that then quickly reverse, trapping traders.
This Triangle pattern has had 2 big fakouts so far - could this current move just be a 3rd fakeout?
If it is - and If the price manages to rebound back into the structure, there is...
Bitcoin often shows many 'fake out's of common chart patterns like this triangle.
This traps over leveraged traders. The 50 week EMA in red implies that this will break to the upside leading to a move to 46k and beyond most likely to fill the CME gap at 48.3k some time in August.
Our eyes are on August 22nd for a major move upwards.
Average volume roughly drawn here in white shows that the general trend is up even throughout this massive dip. Volume on average is increasing and so this implies strength.
Also the drop came exactly to the .786 retrace when we do a fib from the last ATH of 20k to the recent one at 64k.
This tells me that this is the bottom and its upwards from here. This .786...
BTCUSD is clearly trading between these 2 support / resistance lines long term.
We now expect a move back up to test the previous support at around 52k.
When we see that we are now just continuing the same trading range that we saw in January, it doesn't seem quite such a 'disaster' or 'bear market' as many others have suggested.
This current price action looks very similar to the dump in March 2020.
In this chart the price action from March 2020 is in blue - with the biggest drops in the blue boxes.
We are now following a similar pattern:
1) A large dump
2) A larger dump
3) A smaller dump
4) ? - a long consolidation over 3 months before another large bull run ?
I haven't gone way back in the charts, but there's also been many 40 to 50% dumps before these and the trend still continued bullish.
After every major dump we saw a huge price increase. The chart speaks for itself.
Taking the mean of the last 2 pumps, we get 1100% as a possible price pump from here!