Just a bit of backstory, but I was doing some market talk with my bro when I showed him this chart but in February when the Rainbow was at the yellow, saying we were crazy over-bought and that fool Bane-posted me. www.youtube.com Now here we are just -30ish% later and: the rainbow is suggesting the (local) bottom is in. Not only that, but your muggle...
Pretty straightforward. The ratio was in a wedge depending on how you draw it for at least a decade The blue bars are all cloned off of the wedge hight and it set the target for popping out both the top and bottom. Price action popped first out of the wedge in gold's favor and now as many traders pivot I think we will see over-performance to the downside and we...
Price action on the S&P 500 has taken an absolute beating but nothing ever goes strait down, and even the most bearish of people should accept that a bull trap should be in play between here and there, and I think we are getting pretty close. This is going to be big picture and I tagged this trade as long only for as a swing trade. I still think that the S&P...
I have been looking at this Macro falling wedge with intermediate descending triangle formation for a while now, and experience has taught me that there is always some wiggle room on the support before the bottom comes in. In my previous charting I had been looking at the 100-200-400-600 EMAs on the monthly target setting but I notice the price action at a lower...
No doubt 10% is a great performance on the day but given the fear and uncertainty we can expect some giveback. I am a mega bear in the long run but right now there is a chance for a Bump and run reversal bottom on a very small timeframe. If you have the risk tolerance and a good strategy you could play this formation. If you are looking to add to your short but...
Silvers sell off today too me by surprise which is saying something given how bearish I am on it. But we have this classic chart, where the long term trend line flipped from support to resistance. This happened at the second touch of what appears to be an descending triangle and given the state of the market I think it is very possible that we don't spend too...
TLDR: While interest rates are negative gold will be exploding in value. I have been mulling over this chart for a while and this write up as well, almost six months, trying to find the balance between keeping it simple and fundamental and throwing in everything until tradingview limits the size of my post and I go into the comments. This is a chart that could...
First is simple support and resistance. The black line is currently acting as resistance and there was a clear rejection from our that trendline. This trendline over 20 years old, it is not to be taken lightly. The purple trendline is a mere three years old but intersects the price action at the same wick. There are also the orange support lines and I am...
Notes before starting: both charts are on the arithmetic scale, not the log scale. Gold is on the monthly time frame and bitcoin, using the BLX ticker, is on the weekly. Once again I am persevering over the charts looking for patterns that may repeat to by benefit and this is a pattern that dumbfounded me when I saw it on Bitcoin. I was amazing that calling the...
I have been questioning Bitcoin's ability to be a fiat alternative for a while but for the purposes of this post that is a subtlety that isn't important. What I have thought for a long time is that bitcoin benefits from "quantitative easing", and I think there is a good case that QE will resume shortly and buyers have stepped in in anticipation. There may be also...
First things first is going to be the Average True Range. That sucker is at an all time low on the monthly time frame and that is a sign that the coil is tight and about to spring. The main thing the ATR is good for is finding that tightness for long term reversals based off of price action, and it does it in a way that Bollinger Bands can't. There is no if,...
"Too Terrible to Contemplate" would be the byline of this post if I wasn't struck by the fascination of contemplating if this was a Second Great Depression where would by target be? Either for my short position or when would I finally go long again? Data on the SPX was pretty sparce in the olden days as there was a lot of math and charting to be done by hand. ...
First off this chart is n't the most elegant considering the limited age of BTCUSD compared to DXY but I want to show the triangle on DXY for some context so this will have to do. The charting in general is simple. The purple arrows show where bitcoin pumped while the DXY was in decline and orange arrows show where a increasingly expensive dollar appears to...
Before I go off to wage slave I have time for a quick post on the eurodollar, which as I said would happen, is going absolutely insane, if you know the implications. The volume today, with just about six hours to go is the highest volume all time on the eurodollar. The FED did an emergency rate cut and that is only marching the equities market on a quicker road...
I am basically doing the same post across tickets for the S&P 500 so interested parties will see it. I have a very high level of conviction that this analysis is broadly correct and so I want it seen. In part because, lets be honest, it feels good to be right, and secondly, I know the pain of losing money and the optimism and cheerfulness of when you are in the...
Background A while back I made my offical call that I thought SPY was topping on a weekly level at 315. We had a nice reversal candle in a rising wedge, with lots of divergence so I made my call. And of course, the wedge broke to the uspide rather than returning to support and basiccally when previous resistance was tested as support I was out of my position...
This is a very big picture post with a pattern that has occurred twice before in recent history. The bet, of course, is that the pattern will hold a third time, or closely rhyme. We are on the monthly chart of SPX and the Eurodollar 3 month futures. The most important thing that we can see is the arrows showing divergence between the SPX and Eurodollar price...
The more I trade the more I try and see what time frame should be controlling based on the stage of the move and what energy level I have to keep up on the trade. Right now with us deep in the symmetrical triangle and this being our third contact the 3 day seems like a good place to be for what we see on the indicators. BTCUSD's rally to 13,875 in June put us...