The big picture on bitcoin continues to look bearish as the two week crypto ichi cloud is about to have a bearish T-K Cross under the cloud. The first two gold circles show a long term change in trend at T-K crosses. The first indicated that the bull market was beginning at about $370. The second firmly established the bear market and price action went form $8k...
I continue to perseverance over the enthusiasm I see currently with silver and the optimism that I saw when bitcoin was in its descending triangle. I had a whole lot less trades under my belt, and I had way less tools in the belt as well. This monstrosity of a trading system actually is a blend of a lot of different systems that I have smashed together to help...
I have done a lot of iterations of this same post, just because the chart seems to be so simple that it is confusing me that more people are not talking about it. There are a lot of youtubers and some of them have given scant attention to the 50w. The occasional post on TV does as well. Often it gets mentioned in a barrage of TA. But this is one of the biggest...
The chart is a 12h chart because reasons, so I have doubled the Bollinger Band Lengths to 40, and that means that the baseline of the BB is still the 20 Day SMA. We are using the double bollinger bands, which confines 99.7 of all price action and the 50 EMA equates to the 25 Day EMA. The stepped blue line is the 50w SMA programmed to fit on the chart, while the...
This post on DXY is pretty hard to contimplate but what is in the charts is in the charts. We have resistance that began to form around 2001 and that has been tested and confirmed both around the end of year 2016 and just recently in 2019. The support has an even greater history, establishing itself from late 1987 to 1995 and then being confirmed in 2008. We...
I detail the 4 points below the linked post, so I won't expound upon those here, I'll just let the arrow and key points do the work. The chart has the key points: 1: Eurodollar futures bottom out. 2: S&P Exhibits topping behavior 3: EuroDollar Futures has a powerful breakout of the EMA Ribbon. Futures and S&P Diverge. 4: S&P Tests the bottom of the EMA ribbon and...
Plenty of ideas show the wedge on BTCUSD but not usually on the log scale. The log scale is particularly important for understanding price action, specially on assets that can move parabolically (which means they give back a whole lot). The rising orange trend line shows how previous support turns to resistance with the handy green oval showing support and the...
Analysis First would be the long term structure. We see two lower highs which creates our resistance and a very good place for us to expect this uptrend to end/consolidate. I really don't see why we would expect a break out at this time and set a higher high. Since the target is in 2021ish I'll worry about that later. Second is the shorter term wedge the price...
Bitcoin has the bearish set up to the left I have covered repeatedly. It looks like an ABC set up that should have us just above $1.2k-$1.4k USD. The bitcoin dominance chart on the right is set to log because the support and resistance lines chart better as a rising wedge on the log scale than a rising flag does on the standard scale. We are clearly failing at...
Something that frustrates me to no end is when I find something that works and I use it, make money off it, then forget it. And a big thing I keep on coming to is to use the daily EMAS to predict the smaller moves in crypto, and use the weekly SMAs to predict the bigger moves. With that in mind this chart needs almost no explanation. Price action is bearishly...
I have been looking for Bump and Run Reversals, either tops or bottoms for a while now. I have been hesitant to post this one on account of how extreme this is, and how at odds it is with the bullish BARR I was seeing on BTCUSD. If you look at the link below you will see everything is in order. Our lead in took a couple of months to develop, we had a move that...
Note: This isn't going to go over complete Eliot wave theory with a complete 1-5, ABC wave count. just what I think I need to make this investment. Also, depending on on the asset determines which is the longer wave, wave 3 or wave 5, with commodities being unusual with Wave 5 being the longest wave. I don't think crypto is completely sorted out, but if it is an...
This seems almost incomprehensible that longs could have gone up so quickly in this market and the concern of a squeeze isn't there. Most of the people in this space should have enough trading under their belt to know when things are at risk for a squeeze and if being right out the weekly Bollinger band isn't clue enough then nothing is. Previous long peaks...
I hereby officially delare that a multi-year top for the S&P 500 is in. We are not going to close a candle body above 315 for years after this week. Next week might have us see a bearish engulfing, we might get some reckless bulls to give a reversal wick but really, its over. The top is in and the volume tells the tale. Key points to remember about the main...
TLDR: When the Everything Bubble pops people, including China, Russia, and everyone else might sell their precious metals (PMs), almost being squeezed out of their positions by necessity (maybe to fund actual wars, not mere trade wars). It would be the opposite of Browns Bottom, where UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown auctioned off half of the UKs...
The chart is pretty self explanatory if you know the basics of charting. The blue acceding triangle has its full performance target in blue lettering and the average target in black, as they unusually perform 70% to target. Gold is also in a potential flag pole and the full target is shown as well. Flags are one of the worst performing patterns though, so be...
Please see the linked post to why this situation is so bearish. But looking at the longs we see a perfect acceding triangle on the BTCUSD Bitfinex longs under a set of circumstances that don't really justify it. We have slipped quite the way down and things are looking like a move to the 200w is very likely. Price has been falling and the moving average...
I don't have the wherewithal to write a long post (under the weather and so are the kiddoes) and so this is going to be very high level. The top is bitcoin, the bottom gold the SMAs on top are twice the value as the SMAs on bottom Color coded for simplicity. We can see that bitcoins price action has created an SMA situation almost identical in appearance...