Yesterday brought an intriguing development in the cryptocurrency market as Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) charged Changpeng Zhao (Binance’s CEO), Samuel Lim, and three other legal entities operating collectively as Binance with numerous violations of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and other CFTC regulations. In the release document, the agency...
Since our last update on Bitcoin, not much has happened in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin oscillated between $27 000 and $28 500, finding strong resistance around this level. Meanwhile, volume continued to decline, still raising a question about the rally's sustainability. Overall, the bullish trend started to weaken, turning more into a neutral one. However,...
On Monday, gold broke above $2 000, making a new high at $2 009.85. Unfortunately, gold erased its gains the next day and plunged as low as $1 934.34. Although this drop did not last long either, and after the FOMC, gold skyrocketed back above $2 000. Currently, it trades near the $1 990 price tag. In the long term, we continue to be bullish on XAUUSD. However, we...
Yesterday, the FED hiked interest rates by 25 basis points, causing an initial rally in the U.S. stock market, followed by a selloff after FOMC’s press release. In his speech, Jerome Powell acknowledged the persistence of high inflation (replacing the tone of “easing inflation”), banking sector problems, and a strong labor market. Furthermore, he reiterated FED’s...
Before the previous meltdown in stocks, in early February 2023, we warned that investors were trying to fight the FED, breaking the cardinal rule of Wall Street. With the recent rebound in SPX and people trying to call FED’s bluff (again), this trend seems to continue. Today, so much anticipated FOMC meeting is here, and central bankers are expected to increase...
Over the past few days, the market situation calmed down a bit, and stocks reacted positively to the rescue of Credit Suisse and regional banks in the United States. We previously noted that a relief in Bitcoin would be closely tied to the rebound in stocks, which continues to be the case. People remain bullish, arguing that the recent aggressive uptick in prices...
Yesterday, U.S. inflation came up in line with expectations, and the market continued to enjoy relief after last week’s route. However, while the FED is progressing in fighting soaring prices, many problems are still on the horizon (declining corporate profits, rising unemployment, the persistence of tight monetary policy, problems in the banking sector, etc.). As...
Last week brought Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB) collapse, accompanied by a spike in VIX and a selloff in stocks and cryptocurrencies. As if it was not enough, unemployment in the United States rose by 0.2%, flashing a strong recession signal. Subsequently, Bitcoin dropped below $20 000 before rebounding back above $22 000 over the weekend (amid the FED’s handling of...
Last summer, we explained how a recession in earnings would confirm the market’s progression into the second stage of the bear market (with the release of corporate earnings for 3Q22 and 4Q22). Furthermore, once major U.S. indices hit lows in October 2022, we warned that stocks and cryptocurrencies were experiencing merely another bear market rally, deceiving the...
Following the FOMC’s rate hike, markets continued to rally yesterday until the closing bell when tech giants Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple reported their earnings. Bleak numbers poured cold water on a rally, and in after-market trading, Nasdaq 100 index fell more than 2.5%. However, this move quickly recovered, highlighting the market's growing fragility. With VIX...
Not much has occurred since our previous update on Bitcoin. Therefore, we stick to our last assessment and remain bearish with price targets at $15 000 and $13 000. However, we want to reiterate that the short-term trend reversal has not been confirmed yet. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the daily chart of MACD. We want to see it fully break below...
Since October 2022, we kept reiterating that the primary downtrend had not ended and that we were merely seeing another bear market rally. Furthermore, we were monitoring the market’s sentiment, which changed from “FED’s pivot” hopes (in October 2022) to a “soft landing” narrative (in December 2022/January 2023). However, in line with our expectations, weak...
A month ago, we noted that USOIL would likely stay stuck within the wide range between $70 and $82. We outlined several developments that pointed to a neutral trend and said that even if the price fell below $70, we would expect it to be shortlived due to the U.S. administration seeking to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) near that price tag. A week...
Finally, Bitcoin showed strong signs of weakness, following our speculation that it might have topped (outlined in the article from 24th February 2023). Overnight, BTCUSD dropped to $22 000 before erasing some losses. The bearish crossover between DM+ and DM- accompanied the move, which we wanted to see in order to confirm our thesis about the bear market rally....
Over the weekend, Bitcoin bounced approximately 4% from a low of $22 770 before weakening slightly. Currently, one piece trades near the $23 400 price tag, and we have not seen confirmation of the short-term trend reversal. Therefore, we continue to pay close attention to DM+ and DM-. Ideally, we want to see them converge and perform a bearish crossover (on the...
Unfortunately, we were unable to update our thoughts during the week. However, we are back now and would like to provide new insights into the market. In the previous article, we said that in order to confirm our thesis about the bear market rally (rather than a bull market), we would like to see a smaller volume in the second leg up (in the price of BTCUSD) than...
Yesterday, we said the short-term trend reversal was not yet confirmed and laid out several conditions we wanted to see in order for it to be confirmed. Furthermore, we introduced a setup with a bullish bias above $22 314 and a bearish one below $21 454. A few hours later, the price broke above the resistance and soared more than 10%, reaching a new high since...
In our previous article, we noted that we were growing increasingly bearish on Bitcoin. However, we also said that the short-term trend reversal was not confirmed yet, and we would like to see more developments suggesting the rally’s exhaustion. Ideally (to support a thesis about the trend reversal), we would like to see a bearish crossover between DM+ and DM- on...