UnclePennybagss

UnclePennybagss Updated 

AMEX:SPY - losing a few points in the PM after an inside day that was fairly muted yesterday. Key inflection today at 412 if we reject this level and/or stay below it, shorts will likely be in control for the morning session. Hard to predict what the after noon will look like without the morning price action, we’ve seen a handful of days were it reverses...

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY - gaining a few points in the PM after a big rally to close off the week. Our key internals were screaming TREND DAY with the VOLD rating at +8, ADD pinned at +2000 and TICK cumulating in the positive territory, holding some of you saw that and were able to hold all day. Key levels today at 413.80, gotta get past this and hold to continue the trend....

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY - gapping back into the 408.50 supply area after a battle at the bottom yesterday. 408.5 was the low at the FED day meeting and was the place that broken PD before trending lower to 403.50. I think it's important if we can get above and stay above this level, potentially testing 413.50 again if we do. For further confirmation of a trend day, watch...

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY - As expected, the FED raised rates another 25 bps. Yesterday's session was probably the least volatile of all FED or CPI days in the last year. Key levels this morning is 408, if we cannot get past this early on, expect lower lows, potentially a test of 403.7 the weakly pivot. If we can get above 408. and then it turns to support, expect higher highs ...

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY - not making any significant moves ON as we await the FED policy decision at 2:00 ET. It is widely expected that they will raise another 25 basis points. Here are the scenarios and plan of action. 25 bps hike - because this is the expected scenario, the market has priced this in, since mar 13th, we've gained 30 points in SPY. My bias is that we...

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY - looking like it put in a suto h&S top PD with a look above the prior pivot high at 415.75 and a close below. IF SPY cannot get above 415.75 quickly and hold, I would be expecting a test of 412 in the session. IT could also be the case that positioning is mostly in as we await the FED policy rate decision tomorrow where they are expected to raise rates....

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY - well after and week of ranging between 415 to 410, early last week we broke down to 406. However, it only took 2 days to reverse 8 days of those losses and are now trading right back at 415. This morning to continue higher a heathy pullback to 412 would add fuel to this bull fire. While a look above 415 and a quick rejection down would give signs for...

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY -After getting the close over 408 on the hourly like I mentioned PD, it was all engines go to the upside. Now, be cautions assuming it's only up form here because this could have merely been a liquidity retest. Before a move lower. In order to confirm move lower I think we want to see a failed follow through high where it moves above 413.50 a closes...

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY - As mentioned yesterday -" Looking for break and hold below 406 and a break and hold over 408.30 for continuation in either direction". We had our move lower despite the positive earnings for the tech giants like MSFT. Bias is short today until we can close above 408 on the hourly. After two big moves lower, we might see movement contracting and could...

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY - was spot on with my analysis prior day " If SPY rejects the 412 area early on and breaks 410 support, expect lower prices to follow…. ". This morning, SPY is bouncing off 406 support in the PM following positive earnings from MSFT and GOOG. Watching price action closely early on for clues to where the market might continue. On one hand sentiment is...

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY - was stuck in the +/- 1 range around the high volume node at 412 until it made a sharp dive in the after hours trading. The drop could likely be due to the aftermath of FRC reporting a drop in deposits after the crisis by 100 Billion, which spread fear of contagion to other regions. If SPY rejects the 412 area early on and breaks 410 support, expect...

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY - gapping up slightly back to the high volume node between 411 and 412. We’ve seen this price zone act as a magnet for the previous week. Until this area starts tot act as R or S, assume that the weekly downward trend will remain in this tight range. For further confirmation of a trend day, watch for: USI:ADD pinned near +\-2000 USI:VOLD ratio...

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY - opening up exactly at PD open, which is sort of strange. This whole week we have opened lower, trended higher, and then finished lower. This could mean there is a trend change today. However, Until the weekly downward trend is broken, I will assume we will continue it. For further confirmation of a trend day, watch for: USI:ADD pinned near +\-2000...

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY - pointing lower again this morning dropping a modest 0.7%. We have mostly reached the 410 pivot I talked about yesterday after we saw a clear 5 min rejection of the 413.5 - 414.5 pivot midday. If price action continues showing signs of sellers in control (strong red bars and sequential green bars with lower vol), next support I am looking at it 409....

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY - pointing lower this morning as treasury yields rose with fear arising in tech earnings. SPY looking very toppy with volume decreasing as a rising wedge builds and it reaches close to the 418 pivot high. If we stay below 413.5 - 414.5 this morning, and price action is showing signs of sellers in control (strong red bars and sequential green bars with...

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY - No major news or economic events today. Continuing to grind higher to the 418.50 pivot where we should see a reaction. For further confirmation of a trend day, watch for: USI:ADD pinned near +\-2000 USI:VOLD ratio over +/- 3 USI:TICK cumulating past 0 wicking to +/-900 NYSE:SCHW - posted a rev beat yesterday. Had some minor price target...

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY - all eyes on US inflation rare YoY numbers, Consensus is 5.2%. If we get 5.1-5.3% I think it is too close to call and would be best to wait for open for a trend to join on pullbacks. <5.3 is a sell immediately, weak names with high betas like NASDAQ:SQQQ , NYSE:BABA >5.1 is an immediate buy, strong names with high betas like NASDAQ:TQQQ , SQ, ...

UnclePennybagss

AMEX:SPY - makes a complete reversal yesterday after gapping down into 405 support and finishing back at the prior 409 resistance. investors are waiting for key inflation data on Wednesday but will to put a bit on risk on in anticipation was SY gapping up past 409 that was res. For the last 3 days. If SPY stays above early in the session and then gets above...