If you were not looking at the general market and just looking at Apple you would not think there had been a market sell off at all. It is just showing soo much relative strength. We just had the 4th worst sell off in the DJI percentage wise only topped by 1987 and 1929 and Apple did not even touch the 200dma. It appears there is still a very strong bid under...
An interesting observation I have is that pretty much all the selling pressure has been after hours and in the futures markets. You can see for the most part since selling down to 285 all the inter-day action has been sideways. It appears when oil dropped 33% in Sunday futures it likely was the cause of the limit down triggering a lot of margin calls the next day...
Very overextended on the downside, at some point we should visit the 200wma. While the market is falling like a knife the longer term uptrend is still intact. Reaching the 200wma is such oversold conditions should provide a very strong bounce.
I posted a 2008 crash fractal Jan 17th which so far is playing out but due for a variety of other charts I am about 50/50 on if this will resolve bullish or bearish. Would need to see weakening in more sectors then just energy, transports and banks. 3500-3600 or 2100-2200 in play imo.
Jan 15th I called this spike (can't say I was expecting it to get quite this high), you can see by the moving average we are about at the far end of how far this move can go. With Vix getting rejected at 50 for the second time volatility should contract now. TVIX seems to have got way overextended, I assume this may be due largely to forced short covering as...
Every time the bottom bollinger band gets over extended in the south direction there has been a spike to the 20 or 50 wma. Additionally RSI is oversold at similar level to JAN 2018. 20 wma target is over 100% gain and 50 wma is over 300% gain. Guessing we could be in a similar situation as Jan 2018
Shopify is largely comprised of a lot of relatively small sellers. Tons are drop shippers shipping directly from China or source their products from China. 65% of Shopify's revenue is from merchant solutions (aka payment processing). The corona virus has already impacted the supply chains for these suppliers even in these early stages. I have heard through the...
Looks like the same pattern as Feb 2018 flash crash. Creating some nice harmonics patterns targeting the gap area. Looks like we created a higher low on big volume with the typical ramp up end of day.
The US10Y looks way oversold, wait for some consolidation but looks like the downside is already in.
Looks like a classic short squeeze is about to happen.
When vix hits 50 on its first run up its always a great short. If you look at the TVIX chart you will see it also hit the 200dma and was rejected. Looking to see some support at 20-25. If the Vix builds up a base between 20-50 over the next months its likely to go higher. Friday was likely the best entry.
Does not look like capitulation has occurred yet. For a drop that started out with a 3% gap down and a 3% down day to follow I would expect capitulation volume to at least match the peaks of previous sell offs. With so much momentum to the downside I am expecting the 294 level to be the end of this current leg down as you can see from the past it has great...
Looks like there are some nice bullish patterns forming in BGFV, the current gap coincides with the target for the inverted head & shoulders and cup and handle pattern. With the recent bullish trend and historically strong Feb earnings BGFV could fill the gap on an earnings gap up.
Historically when silver under performs gold it is set to catch up in a overall rally of precious metals. With gold having already broke the lower consolidation range the general uptrend in starting. With the large divergence in the silver to gold ratio silver is set to heavily over perform gold.
Good point to switch Gold long positions into Silver long positions.
The yield curve is probably one of the best recession indicators. Add that with the 0% S&P500 EPS growth in 2019, weekly downwards reversions for 2020 EPS growth, all time high P/S & P/E valuations especially in top market leading stocks and being at 10 year trend resistance point. Looks like everything is in place for a nice crash now. Seems reasonable to visit...