Quick chart snap: pennant consolidation today following opening gap up and in pre-NFP squaring. Will we see a break before the market shuts down for the evening?
Cable, H4: Upside breakout from rising wedge resulted in failure with sell off from bearish butterfly reversal window in the vicinity of 1.54. Eve-Eve Double Top installed between 1.53-1.54 reached its primary target at 1.5135 post US Advance GDP. A Break held below 1.5135 sets up Harmonic ABCD with 100% measured move to ~1.4960. Note horizontal support at (C)...
Breakout of 16 year pattern on-deck? 90 degree Blow-off imminent?
AUD/JPY is testing its final major rung of horizontal support before an open supply pocket with no footholds of any note until 83. The Harmonic ABCD that got underway in earnest with the bear flag break at 90 at the beginning of this week ultimately targets 79-80.
Off its rejection at 2007's all-time highs at Andrews Pitchfork median line resistance near 75.50, IYR has broken down aggressively. After breaking below the lower APF reaction line, IYR declined to ~62.50, finding support at the APF's lower Hagopian line (dotted). The subsequent bounce has installed a rising channel/flag as a return move to the lower reaction...
Cable, H4: Upside breakout from rising wedge risks failure; sell off from bearish butterfly reversal window in the vicinity of 1.54. Eve-Eve Double Top installed between 1.53-1.54 reaches its primary target at 1.5135 post US Advance GDP
Rejection at cluster resistance near 1.55 in July 2012 installed the head of a potential H&S top on GBP/CHF. With a mildly downsloping neckline cutting across 1.37-1.38 for the remainder of 2013, a break below targets 1.25, near the cyclical low established in mid-2011.
AUD/JPY continues to crumble, breaking beneath bear flag diagonal support and potentially setting off the final, 1000-pip leg of an ABCD begun with late April's highs around 102. Intra-pattern horizontal support at 89 and 89.80 has cleared. The next major horizontal support comes at 87.50; then nothing until 83 and finally the full measured move target between 79-80.
Cable's reaction against its Bearish Butterfly PRZ is an excellent example of the role of the PRZ as a consolidation/staging area and demand sink. In this case, Cable has more than validated the 1.54 PRZ's relevance by subjecting it to multiple tests. As a result, a 1.53-1.54 congestion range has emerged from which a) a breakout trade above 1.54 can set up, b) a...
AUD/JPY continues to crumble, breaking beneath bear flag diagonal support and potentially setting off the final, 1000-pip leg of a measured move down begun with late April's highs around 102. Intra-pattern horizontal support at 89 and 89.80 (note the April 2011 high) present potential failure points. If these levels clear, there's major horizontal support...
Major developed global equity markets are still working through the pullback set off by Bernanke's hawkish performance before Congress on May 22. Except for the S&P 500, which has run ahead in its absorption of the implications of the Fed's LSAP taper.
EUR/USD's last 48 hours have produced a simple rectangle/flat/flag range consolidation with clear support and resistance levels at 1.3255 and 1.3295. With the necessary caveat about special situations (i.e. whipsaws),these periods of low volatility are excellent passages to identify and lie in wait for high probability setups built around discrete levels...
The Aussie (M15) is nearing .9230 H&S Top Support after being firmly pressed back on multiple attempts to clear .9280 at the 78.6% retracement of the 07/24 high near .9320. A downside break targets .9165, confluent with the 78.6% retracement of the .9125-.93 range installed in the latter half of last week.
The Guppy trades lower following this AM's UK GDP print that saw a +0.3% rise Q/Q to +0.6% that was widely anticipated and may have been priced-in with the brisk move higher off the 148 bottom in mid-July. Bids have come in at (B) near 152.50 as they have the past 4 sessions; but should this level give 149-150 near (C) becomes downside consideration.
AUD/JPY: Bearish Bat continues breakdown from ~102 PRZ, sets up measured move down to 80 on bear flag break, break below mid-June low at 88.90
EUR/JPY is winding out at confluent Potential Reversal Zones (PRZ) for two bearish harmonic patterns: a bearish Cypher extending back to the Q2 2009 peak near 140; and a nested bearish shark originating at from the early 2011 swing high near 124. The three peaks in 2013 YTD on slackening momentum (see lower panel) and the pair's inability to install a higher high...
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo views deviations away from its cloud ("kumo") as movement away from dynamically-rendered market equilbrium. Where these deviations become extreme in a market/instrument, some reversion toward the cloud to burn off the disequilibrium will occur. Since the 2009 low, these deviations have only occasionally breached >20%. Across those...
The Cycle of 24 (including Sunday candles) continues with the Russell at channel trend line resistance just as it tags the 161.8% extension of the May-June pullback and arrives at the 24 trading day window that has marked the previous three channel turns.