Mean (+) & (-) Variance from Cloud: 18.22% Mean Retracement to Cloud: -14.75%
Ichimoku: SPX 1995-2000 Variance from/Retracements to Cloud
The S&P 500 remains in the most persistent state of disequilibrium as measured by distance above Ichimoku Kinko Hyo's Cloud (kumo) since the pair of >21% readings at the Spring and Summer 2011 swing highs - just prior to registering an absolute -21% peak-to-trough decline. The current pullback toward the cloud remains the shallowest since SPX broke above its...
10Y into massive cluster support floor near 125 with noteworthy positive momentum divergence; but failed backtest of broken 6-year rising trend line in July weighs heavily....
Discussion of imminent potential of Blackberry going private hits the wires August 9, just after the stock printed a key hammer at the 78.6% fibonacci retracement of its Sep 2012 - Jan 2013 range.
XLF: Fins at confluence of Rising Channel Resistance and Andrews Pitchfork Median Line resistance, cyclical ABCD 100% projection, and Bearish Deep Crab PRZ.
2-year Harmonic Bearish Bat at PRZ around $160, on higher highs grinding out over major negative momentum divergence
INVN: Short-term broadening formation intersecting with medium-term Right Angle Ascending Broadening Formation (RAABF), cluster resistance 17-18
Sometimes the trade everyone is watching is exactly what happens. A much-anticipated momentum break on AAPL above $470 would activate the April-June Double Bottom, projecting a measured move to $540. Healthy skepticism says the move may result in failure. Or it may be the fat pitch invitation establishing H1 2013's 380-460 range as a credible bottom that...
Rising Channel from June 2013 bottom closing early May gap down into cluster resistance, medium-term fulcrum point 49-52
Descending Triangle at 78.6% retracement of AEO's 2007 high-2009 low range; Broken at 18, measured move targets support cluster near 14.
FOSL is finishing off a bearish butterfly construction as the latest leg higher into rising channel resistance near 125. This level coincides with the 78.6% retracement of 2012's range and structured measured move resistance given off by the channel. Through 127.50, FOSL finds itself contending with the same level as 2011 and 2012's topping structures between...
Is a third Right Angle Descending Broadening Formation under way?
The Greenback has returned to 81 after rallying above 84 for the second time in 2013 - on this occasion adding 5% in 14 sessions following the June 19 FOMC, only to give it all back in the last 22 to date. The convergence of the rising wedge against falling resistance present here is likely to force the USD into taking a more decisive path: 1) (green arrow)...
Quick hit looking at Bearish Shark turning over at July's Butterfly PRZ - 1.54 resistance remains the upside level to breach.
The US is the only major world equity market to surpass it's 05/22/13 swing high. Dax, Euro Stoxx 50 and UK FTSE are all within 3%; but most of the rest of the world isn't even close. Is the US Decoupling thesis back on? Is it tenable? And what is it that US markets inferred or sloughed off from Bernanke's taper affirmation that the rest of the world didn't get?
The S&P 500 is closing in fast on its Bearish Harmonic Butterfly PRZ near 1750, less than 3% above (note: chart is arithmetic monthly, ratios close/close). Basic rungs of support come in at X (1565, October 2007's high), followed by Summer 2011's high at B (1360-1370) and the Sep 2011 closing low near C (1130). In this context, the next major resistance zone...
Update to 15-min range I laid out pre-US GDP, pre-FOMC, pre-ECB, pre-NFP EURUSD at the beginning of the week. Looking back, it's indisputable how well that range and its 100% measured moves up and down demarcated the weekly range; but what a chop-fest. All that to then note with delicious irony: EURUSD is almost perfectly unchanged from the range's inception.