Millennials and Boomers have opposite effects on stock market during years 2018 to 2030.
The Value-Based Forecast for S&P 500 shows stock market hovering above 3000 during years 2018 to 2028. play.google.com
As the last Boomers hit retirement, their drag on the stock market should end when Millennial consumption...
CiovaccoCapital said Millennial consumption can drive up stocks until year 2035, just like baby boomers drove stocks up from 1982-2000.
So, the green line is the optimistic forecast up to the year 2035 and the red line is the decline similar to the dot-com bust of years 2000-2003.
If SPX crashes to 100-Year-Bottom channel, it would probably rebound to the current channel.
Bullish case would be to rise up to the 10-year trend line.
Mild bear of another 15% drop would still result in SPX in current channel.
Amazon could stay in the uptrend (green line) until yield curve inversion (10yr - 2yr Treasuries spread becomes negative) and then crash (red line).
Current news about yield curve inversion of 5yr - 3yr Treasuries is premature. That indicator was 4 years early in 1964, 3 years early in 2005, and usually was 2 years early.
Morgan Stanley predicted end of economic cycle in 2021. www.morganstanley.com
And it looks like a yield curve inversion will occur in 2019 or 2020. fred.stlouisfed.org
I combined the above ideas and drew a green line staying...
Looks like downtrend in spite of record earnings. Maybe this is from interest rates rising from near zero. (From 1942 to 1982 interest rates rose from record low to record high. Now that US dollar is being replaced by China Petro-Yuan, the US government will have to sell more Treasuries to fewer buyers to cover bigger deficit spending, which could drive up...