If SPX crashes to 100-Year-Bottom channel, it would probably rebound to the current channel.
Bullish case would be to rise up to the 10-year trend line.
Mild bear of another 15% drop would still result in SPX in current channel.
Amazon could stay in the uptrend (green line) until yield curve inversion (10yr - 2yr Treasuries spread becomes negative) and then crash (red line).
Current news about yield curve inversion of 5yr - 3yr Treasuries is premature. That indicator was 4 years early in 1964, 3 years early in 2005, and usually was 2 years early.
Morgan Stanley predicted end of economic cycle in 2021. www.morganstanley.com
And it looks like a yield curve inversion will occur in 2019 or 2020. fred.stlouisfed.org
I combined the above ideas and drew a green line staying...
Looks like downtrend in spite of record earnings. Maybe this is from interest rates rising from near zero. (From 1942 to 1982 interest rates rose from record low to record high. Now that US dollar is being replaced by China Petro-Yuan, the US government will have to sell more Treasuries to fewer buyers to cover bigger deficit spending, which could drive up...
SPX is at lower trend-line from 2009. If it goes lower, then it will be at lower trend-line from 2010. If it goes even lower, then it will be in bear market.
If there is no trade war, I would say SPX will go up.
Drop below the middle trend line into the trend channel that held from Sept 2009 until Nov 2017. The November 2017 breakout ended Feb 2018 and is now on bottom of that trend line. It could drop down into the previous trend channel that has lasted a long time and could endure for the rest of 2018.