if the lines on the chart makes sense the real test for the bulls will come after reaching provisional upper edge of the channel - while only retrace from there will actually confirm the channel - middle lines seem to match consecutive lower highs - also the price is now in line with previous LHs
if you squint your eyes we could look at the current situation as a small fractal happening within the big one and just yesterday entered the future ;)
Of course single drop is enough to invalidate it. Let's see how the future looks like :)
Considering mid term strength and an inverse H&S with neck of a right shoulder around 9890 the range can be 12500+ - from 12k local high to the left side of the neck is 30% gives the range up to 12860 - all depends on the momentum and the FOMO.
If not already in a trade I'd consider an entry after breakout confirmation or after breaking another local downtrend...
looks like retest of the blue trend line which was holding well so far yet with some false breakouts.
we are also still in the local uptrend channel so if falling further the 8600 area could be the support to keep the uptrend going.
this is also a new month so testing support sounds reasonable
after failure of inverse H&S with neckline just below 12k now there is an option for another try after getting to around 10800 area completing head and retrace can form right shoulder then.
Long after breakout above the neckline, possible retrace from below the mofu and confirming the neckline
Here are more thoughts after having a second look on the big inverse H&S:
- possible range of this formation could be 21k +
- dark blue up-trend line (the one acted as support at the beginning of today's candle at 8650) is not just local, it goes all the way down with more "false break downs" like the last shoulder (you can zoom out the chart above to see this)
is it a bulltrap now and is the continuation story from the yellow circle gonna repeat - or - should we go down to 50% - 8100-8000 area to retest the breakout from the downtrend?
volume is quite decent so this should give pretty strong confirmation (also in case of break in back to downtrend). I saw some analysis comparing current situation to a 2014 when the...
The fight for the breakout seems to be not over yet as on a weekly chart the price barely touched the downtrend line. It may need to close the week firmly above 8900 and considering last week volume is pretty low next wee should bring some more fight and more volume to bring more clarity