Self criticism: I failed to predict market top in this past bull run. The reasons are below:
1. Overly optimistic behavior/euphoria
2. Hence expecting the market top to hit the top band of the log curve
3. Inaccurate chain analysis:
3.1 MVRV Z-Score seemed to be misleading
3.2 MVRV turned out to be a better predictor
3.3 Pi-cycle indicator turned out to be a...
just by looking at past price movements, it looks like we are at the global bottom right now. however RSI is pointing to a possible continuation to a larger collapse.
in the past, it looks like anytime weekly RSI touched this level, it just went down further. this happened 3 times in the past and it definitely doesn't mean that history should repeat itself. at...
nano has been a sleeper in this bull run so far. a cup handle is being formed while weekly rsi is telling that something big is about to happen. let's wait and see but the upside potential is extremely high for this coin.
looking at the previous bull season on a weekly time frame (where the market top was in the first week of January 2018), it took 154 weeks from the market bottom to market top and 77 weeks from the previous bitcoin halving to the market top. if we extrapolate this to the current bull season (where the market bottom happened in Dec 2018), 154 weeks extends to the...
according to many macro indicators such as mvrv-z, the bull run is far from being over. this is just one possibility of how it can play out based on the previous 2 bull seasons. it is definitely an oversimplification and take it with a grain of salt.
Zoom out to see the complete picture. I think we're very close to the eth-btc pair breakout from the 3-year downtrend. It only seems to be a matter of time. Right now, the only concerning indicator seems to be the decreasing volume despite the falling wedge. Other than that, this seems to be a candidate for the breakout.
by no means I'm saying that this is what's going to happen because it sounds too good to be true but that's what the chart is saying. looking at the weekly, ethusd is in price discovery mode coming from a double bottom. in this log channel, if it only reaches the top of the light green area, it means a price around $7-8k. fingers crossed.
some say that btc.d is drawing a shoulder/head/shoulder at the moment. I think it's too early for btc.d to break down the support. I think a more likely scenario is a wider double top situation. I think the previous level of 50% is a reasonable target for the next alt season.
the rising wedge, coupled with decreasing volume indicates that the rising wedge will break down. we are in an upward channel and from the fib retracement it seems like reasonable support is at $42k, which makes this a ~20% correction.
the only thing about this forecast is that it is so obvious that the market might fake everyone out.
If the Turkish policy makers and CB continue doing what they're doing right now, there is a high risk that the purple resistance will get broken upwards which might make 1 USD worth 10 TRY. If they can calm down a little bit, TRY can stabilize around .3 USD.