One more day and IQX will be finishing his "gigantic" head and shoulders (P&G) formation... Minimum target at 2500 corresponding to about 1600 in SPY.
1st: A rising US$ is bad for stocks...! If you are in stocks and expect a rising US$, you should get short! 2nd: My favourite indicator (DXY weighted US stock indices) show a major change compared to the unweighted prior to market corrections.
The Wykhoffians already know... Maybe you should also.
Presenting without any comments.....
Nikkei is leaving long term QQEx Channel with a SSHSS formation. Short- to Mediumterm Target is 16000
SHS formation in weekly chart. Minimal target is 111.00
In an healthy upward trend we usually see an equal behaviour of S&P 500 and its equal weight "colleague" IQX (see Oct 2014). Sept/Oct correction broke this behaviour. S&P is catching up the relative performance of IQX. Todays FANTA-5 correction may be just the beginning...
Today's China Data turmoil, changed my view on the short term target of SRNE. Similar to NBI we should see a significant correction towards 7.00 region today and during this week, but my medium term outlook is 10.30 (1st target) and 13.50. Heavy volume trading on 22/23 Dec points towards an accumulation by "stronger" hands...
Some "bit" of a pump & dump action taking place on NVIV...
Most traders take 2 much care about minutes and hours, but just forget to take a look at the big view....
Target 1: 1132 . On break 1190 and on further break 1300 region.
Equal weighted S&P 500 seems to be once more the leading indicator for further S&P500 direction. If H RS trend line is not taken out, we are moving to a SHS formation with an equal weight target of 2450. This corresponds to 1600-1650 on regular S&P 500. With Monday's continuation of last Friday after hours selling, the probability of a SHS formation is high.
Last COT report suggests a less bearish behaviour within the next few weeks. A correction to 15.50 region seems to be reasonable. But sill bearish view on silver! Long with a target of 15.50. If a breakout appears (unlikely) a further correction till 18.70 might be possible. Continue with short to 12.00 if not...
2 Days after FOMC Meeting mini futures of s&p 500 expire ( about 1.1 trill.USD) . Expect some wild movement... S&P 500 VIX futures expire on Dec. 16, so time to position accordingly....
Correlation is certainly not causation, but it is striking that upward behaviour of SPX, DXY weighted SPY and JNK correlate with CNY depreciation. It is also striking that JNK and DXY weighted SPX correlate with appreciation of CNY. SPX not. Not yet? Waiting on the usual Sunday night PBOC announcement... Short SPX!
The Gold price in XDR is quite a nice measure since it reflects the price development of Gold in the major world economies. Inclusion of Renminbi should not matter, since CNY was pegged to US$ and is now pegged to a currency basket containing all major XDR base currencies.... We reached the lower bottom of the trading range (since Jun 2013) and we should expect a...
Todays movement is in the range of 20 % of the long term QQEx upward channel. Some bit of surprising... So, expect a fast movement to the lower range of the long term upward channel and decide with USDJPY direction if further shorting is reasonable or if one should expect a rebound towards upper channel of the long tern upward trend.