Corporate debt is overvalued, propped up by the Federal Reserve
Bought some puts expiring end of May, hopefully the timing is right
Short term bearish, long term FED is op / not worth tryna short it to the ground
chart says it all, resistance zones are experimental. expecting liquidity shock to resume, increased demand for USD hence people selling their crypto, all correlations increase closer to 1 in such a scenario - even "risk-off" assets such as gold or bitcoin (arguably) would crash short term.
just an idea, everything is uncertain especially right now. long term I...
in my estimation, the most likely outcome for bitcoin short term is a crash leading up to OR after the halving (too much built up hype--reflected by bearish technicals), but the price should revert to the stock-to-flow pricing model afterwards within +-2 SD (i.e. 95% confidence)
mid to long term, bitcoin is looking extremely bullish. there's simply no reason to...
Lag defined as time it takes for price to catch up with the model price after the halving happens. Average time based on previous 2 halvings is 42 weeks. In the short term don't expect price to regress to the model immediately
The best-performing markets tend to flip flop every decade or so. For example, in 2000-2010, emerging markets outperformed US markets. In the following decade (2010-2020), US markets significantly outperformed and emerging underperformed. This concept is known as reversion to the mean - valuations get stretched in one direction, and eventually, it is bound to...
- S&P500 broke a long term uptrend and now is seeing a rebound. a rebound was expected given the current level of volatility. I expect the price to get rejected at the long term uptrend line, but a throw-over is in the cards as it would be a perfect bull trap
- support boxes are drawn out. these levels are likely contenders for a solid bottom since...
USD is the world reserve currency, it tends to outperform most other currencies during a liquidity crisis like we have been seeing the last few days. If the market keeps crashing and things keep going in that direction, expect USD to keep pumping.
My strategy to tackle this move: calls on UUP, march 27th expiry (high-risk, high-reward), strike price $28 USD