We are getting new info day by day that will help us decide if we are seeing a trend change in the price of bitcoin. Sometimes, you have to get creative in technical analysis, and that is what we are doing! Rather than looking at the price of BTC one dimensionally, we are choosing to look at it through the lens of equities, commodities, and volatility. So lets hop...
Flip $BTC upside down! But don't just flip it, make a relative strength ratio with multiple indexes. How about $DXY and $UUP?
Now let’s dive into the intermarket relationships and see if we can find a trend: Here we have an even split. So we will still have to wait and see what will take place. We are starting to see a few breakouts in price, but we need to see more to go bullish. If we start to see failures, we will see a continuation of the bearish trend. Bullish = 6 Neutral =...
Intermarket Analysis is great for finding out if there is going to be a trend change or a trend reversal. Today we will look at multiple intermarket relationships that BTC is interacting with to try and decide if we are going to break the downtrend, or retest the sloping resistance and fail. So let’s first start with BTC. Here you can see that we are coming up on...
We had a massive pullback before the last leg back in 1998. Approximately 33%. Then we broke through a multi year resistance line with many retests before a volatile move upwards over the next two years. That took the Nasdaq all the way to the 327% extension from around 1350 to just over 5000 and marked the end of the tech bubble. We just broke that trend line...
So the VIX is showing some signs of possible bullish continuation right now, but the trend is down. If we see the VIX maintain support at the 0 bound and trend upwards, this would be an environment that crypto goes down. If this ends up being a non trending event, than we are back to the bullish case. The important thing to note here is to have some cash. So keep...
Whenever there is a possible trend flip, we want to look at any clues that we can to understand if there is going to be a change. In this chart we have TOTAL, TOTAL2, BTCUSD, and ETHUSD all compared to eachother. February 24th, 2020 is the date for "Volmageddon". Here we have 3 of the 4 breaking trend and going from bullish to bearish. The only one that stayed...
If we know one thing in technical analysis, all time highs are not bearish. So if the Dow Jones Transports broke out to new all time highs, would that be bearish for equities? Or would that sound like the start of a new bull market? To me it sounds like the latter, so let’s have a look at the chart! With a new weekly close, we are inches away from the all time...
Just as a check, we like to look at the dollar from multiple angles to see if we have the trend correct. Today we will be looking at the EURUSD pair, as it is the largest weighting in the DXY index. So let’s have a look: So what we are seeing here is a bullish trend overall on the 3 day chart. Isn’t it crazy how close the EURUSD pair came to the 161% extension?...
First things first, all time highs are bullish. Let’s not forget that! When looking at GLD, that is the first thing I notice. Let’s have a look at the chart: When a new all time high is reached, I like to use the Fib extension tool to pick some possible upside targets. Gold has formed a huge base of the cup and it looks to be forming a possible cup and handle....
RVZ is looking more bearish. There is a ton of space to create a lower high here. Plus we have some overbought signals on both RSI and the stochastic. The MACD is looking like trending upwards, but even some sideways action can turn that trend bearish. For now, I am leaning towards the VIX and the RVZ being bearish, and the VXN being bullish. Typically, you would...
This chart is looking more bullish than the VIX. The reason being is it has set a higher high and a higher low. Now we just need to determine if this break of the trendline is a breakout or a fakeout. Only time will tell for that. We would need to see a close above the trendline to determine that this is a breakout.
We watch the VIX closely, but did you know that there are multiple VIX tickers? Here we will cover some of the most notable ones and see what the charts have to tell us. Let’s have a look: So this chart is showing some exhaustion to the bull side. We do still have the MACD trending bullish, but both the RSI and the stochastic are giving exhaustion signals. We...
There are never absolutes in technical analysis, but there are some rules that hold true. Moving averages themselves are just lines on a chart, but there are many ways to implement that data to gain an edge. In crypto, one of the most watched moving average is the 21 week simple moving average. For me, just looking at the line does not help as much as looking at...
On the monthly, we can see that DXY is clearly in a downtrend and is likely to continue. We are bouncing off the support level 1 right now and there is a ton of resistance to break through before we get to the bullish case. What seems to be likely is that we will test the resistance level 1. Once we test this resistance, we will have a better idea of either trend...
As the old saying goes, get the dollar right, and everything else will follow! Let’s take a longer term look at the DXY and see what the charts are telling us. Let’s have a look at the weekly chart. Right now, it looks as though the dollar is oversold and looking to gain some ground back. The problem for the bull case on the dollar is there is so much room for a...
This makes it even more clear that for the short term trend, USDT is the asset to own until we fill that gap. Once we fill the gap, we can decide the levels for entering the crypto market long again. Keep your head on a swivel!
This one has more confirmation that the trend has changed. We see the stochastic RSI and the MACD giving the same signal, which is to own USDT. How about the weekly?