dkh

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Markets Allocation
36 % stocks 64 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPX 60% | 15 COST 8% | 2 AXP 8% | 2 TLT 4% | 1
dkh dkh SPXUSD, 120, Short ,
SPXUSD: Not All the work shown, KISS - IMO sharp pullback incoming.
32 1 2
SPXUSD, 120 Short
Not All the work shown, KISS - IMO sharp pullback incoming.

Too much work to show so going with a simple chart to illustrate the idea. Full work says total downside risk is -205 starting Monday April 9 and Ending Tuesday April 10. I might be wrong because I also have an alternate scenario which shows us making a nice recovery. Since the downside risk scenario was so nasty I decided to alert the community. If we make a TA ...

dkh dkh SPX500, 60, Short ,
SPX500: You Can Draw the Lines Anyway You Want - IMO Looking to Short It
160 1 9
SPX500, 60 Short
You Can Draw the Lines Anyway You Want - IMO Looking to Short It

I have no idea if price action is going to take the index higher but I will be looking to short this action based on how it bounced off the low. When you have this quick of a recovery I would naturally want to take some profits at this point which means others are thinking the same. I would like to see a trigger form before making the play. This is a simple ...

dkh dkh SPX500, W, Short ,
SPX500: The Stars are Lining Up. Have we seen the top?
110 0 3
SPX500, W Short
The Stars are Lining Up. Have we seen the top?

Just thinking that if we finally (at the minimum) see a correction here it should be quite spectacular. However, we won't know it till we see it. Watch the HSI for clues...maybe history will repeat itself!

dkh dkh SPX500, 120, Short ,
SPX500: May be entering sell-off cycle - bond market is warning
158 0 2
SPX500, 120 Short
May be entering sell-off cycle - bond market is warning

The sell-off in TLT and 10-year UST is waving a big yellow flag at the moment. The short and long cycle waves are in agreement going into tomorrow. Look for a gentle pullback tomorrow followed by more momentum going into next week. Wait for a trigger to enter a trade.

dkh dkh SPX500, 30,
SPX500: The Fed will Reduce the Balance Sheet ... Do Pigs FLY?
121 0 5
SPX500, 30
The Fed will Reduce the Balance Sheet ... Do Pigs FLY?

Watching Janet Yellen speak is getting harder to watch and listen to. If you want to get my video updates you will find them on my blog, the link is in my profile since doing the write-up twice is redundant. So we saw DXY shoot-up and bonds sell-off after the decision. I currently have short-dated ATM calls and longer-dated OTM puts working. October will be more ...

dkh dkh SPX500, 30,
SPX500: Set-Ups for 9/18/17 - Straddle it
116 3 6
SPX500, 30
Set-Ups for 9/18/17 - Straddle it

OK sports fans what we saw at one minute till End of Day was a hardcore bid to make 2500 which was met by an equal amount of offers. It was a goal-line push at the one yard line. So what does this tell us? Almost absolutely nothing! Hurricane hits and hurricanes coming - no effect. Missiles flying over Japan - nothing. Bomb goes off in London subway - nothing. So ...

dkh dkh SPX500, 60, Short ,
SPX500: Set-Ups for 9/11 -Brrrrrrrr
246 1 3
SPX500, 60 Short
Set-Ups for 9/11 -Brrrrrrrr

You only have two levels to watch 2456.5 and 2446.4 if we take out those levels you know what to do. If you don't know what to do then wait on the sidelines. If you took the late morning sell trigger then place your stop at break-even. Here is the summary: 1. Inertial lines fell twice intraday = bearish 2. DXY at 91.32 = bearish 3. UST 10-year closed at 2.054 = ...

dkh dkh SLV, 30, Long ,
SLV: Break of Downtrend Channel and Bullish Cycle
116 0 5
SLV, 30 Long
Break of Downtrend Channel and Bullish Cycle

So what we have here is a breakout from the Downtrend channel and if you are invested in silver at this point you may want to look at constructing a trading plan around it. I have a bullish algo cycle in the works until 9/25/2017 so you would look at buying the dips or scalping until then. OUr upside target is 17.58 with buy entries coming in at the 16.22 - 16.29 ...

dkh dkh SPX500, 30, Short ,
SPX500: EOD Market Update and Setups for 9/5/2017
319 4 9
SPX500, 30 Short
EOD Market Update and Setups for 9/5/2017

So we retraced a little at EOD which also provided a confirming trigger to take a short but who want to short at the start of a long weekend? Well, if you're using options it's not a big deal, and the market price of puts at TA levels was really cheap so I guess I must raise my hand! My algo timing wave is showing the bull move timed out at mid-day today. There ...

dkh dkh SPX500, 30,
SPX500: The ABC's of this Trend Channel Break
163 1 5
SPX500, 30
The ABC's of this Trend Channel Break

So the market broke the downward channel tracking back to 8/8/2017 and pushed through Fib retracement levels of the full swing with very few pauses. There are a couple ways to look at it and break it down. Firstly, it broke the downward channel which is bullish. Secondly, we have had 2 bull trend days in a row which is bullish Thirdly, it pulled back after ...

dkh dkh SPX500, 120, Short ,
SPX500: Set-ups for Monday 8/28/2017
214 0 7
SPX500, 120 Short
Set-ups for Monday 8/28/2017

For the set-up next week we are dropping down to a 2-hour time frame as we crossed thresholds using other analysis tools so managing your trades will be a little different next week. If you are following this work you should be 'net' flat going into next week. If you are long apply tight trailing stops. The VVIX closed at 95.53 which I consider a 'neutral' read, ...

dkh dkh SPX500, 240, Short ,
SPX500: Setups for Monday 8/21/2017
340 6 5
SPX500, 240 Short
Setups for Monday 8/21/2017

On the Algo time cycle we still have a downward bias. Key levels are 2435.5 and 2418.5 so if you are short you will need to see 2418.5 taken out on either Monday or Tuesday. If you are long then you will need to see 2435.5 taken out in the same time frame. Since the bias is for more down until 8/27 any counter-trend play should have tight stops in place and be ...

dkh dkh SPX500, 240, Short ,
SPX500: Nice Decision Zone on the SPX
133 1 4
SPX500, 240 Short
Nice Decision Zone on the SPX

Based on Algo time cycles and Fib retracement we are at an interesting place. The bias appears to be on the downside but if we stay above the pivot (purple line) we could waffle around until August 27. I wouldn't get too excited about going short unless we see a breakdown in the market in the overnight (ES) leading into the opening on 8/16. I think babysitting is ...

dkh dkh SPX500, D, Short ,
SPX500: Is the SPX500 getting Seasick or is this a Coffee Break?
113 0 4
SPX500, D Short
Is the SPX500 getting Seasick or is this a Coffee Break?

Now that we have touched pretty lofty levels in the indexes and traders may have taken a few too many trips to the Trumponomics cocktail party punchbowl, let us take a step back and make sure they weren't serving Jonestown brand Guyana Kool-Aide. The rising intermediate support line is currently at 2204 - 2205 and all bullish parties involved have a vested ...

dkh dkh FCX, 120, Long ,
FCX: Trumponomics Bouncer
61 0 8
FCX, 120 Long
Trumponomics Bouncer

There is a lot of spent and unspent optimism on what Trump will mean to infrastructure spending. I have no idea if it will mean good things to FCX, but I like this set-up

dkh dkh SPX500, D, Short ,
SPX500: Time to leave the Party?
110 0 5
SPX500, D Short
Time to leave the Party?

I'm calling the move from the Feb 11 lows till today a rising wedge. I could be very wrong but right now all the pot odds favor a pull-back

dkh dkh COST, 240, Long ,
COST: A Little Far-fetched but Why Not?
46 0 3
COST, 240 Long
A Little Far-fetched but Why Not?

You can create a strategy around this if the roller-coaster keeps going, I just can't think of any earth-shaking revelations or headline risk that can derail the ride, trade safe!

dkh dkh AXP, D,
AXP: Is AXP being sent to the Chop Shop?
29 0 2
AXP, D
Is AXP being sent to the Chop Shop?

Weakness in Visa and Mastercard is telling me that it is more likely that AXP will follow the group rather than the group following AXP. If you are long this may be a good place to go flat or reduce position size until we see if this plays out. This doesn't look like a candidate to go short on, at least not yet.

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