dojitrader

dojitrader

Looks to me like 2 obvious wave counts {with a 3rd unlikely} but, still bullish from the recent lows and 100 pips is 100 pips. Entry is a little up for grabs as e waves often start early and do not touch the bottom trend line. Might have to be ready jump in on instinct (sounds better than guessing) All we need is 1 more wave up to d and then, hopefully, a...

dojitrader

But, lurking above is a BAT **see chart below** Anyway, A to B ratio comes up short enough to put this Butterfly in doubt as I've noticed that the minimum required .786 ratio is critical to a Butterflies positive probabilities. It's worth a try this time with the 4hr resistance - the .681 fib retracement - and the 1.168 fib ext coalescing in the 104.50 area....

dojitrader

If this does not reverse immediately at the ab=cd then, I'll take a shot at the Bat, which may be the better choice when you look at the correlated EurJpy and the seemly extended corrective price action. Maybe the candlesticks will help decide.

dojitrader

This idea came from looking at a chart from DavidTowson; However, I think the full fib ext of 1.272 for Pt D offers a better harmonic/symmetrical opportunity than David suggests and lowers the risk to know if a larger correction - perhaps to the .500/618 fib is what the market wants to trace out. Thus, to me, this seems the 1st/best opportunity to short a trend...

dojitrader

Looks like I will not get the long opportunity I was hoping for with the open, BUT, if this turns into another 3-3-5 flat then there will be a good opportunity for a low risk short. The principle of alternation says that his should be something other than another flat - perhaps a triangle. And yet, it looks too good to ignore a possible repeat. The risk is low to...

dojitrader

Sandeep_Gupta published this idea: It that got me thinking about my 1 1/2 cents worth {{Not feeling that positive for all 2 cents}} So, I've combined the ab=cd he mentions with an A = C and EW count that would place the 5th wave right about the .9000 area. The question is how much of a reaction will this bring should this be a 3rd wave on the larger degree or a C...

dojitrader

The harmonics seem rather reasonable, BUT, the resistance zone gets larger the farther left you look. So, that has me thinking it's somewhat up in the air on where this might reverse. This looks like a job for the candlesticks to refine the entry and stops.

dojitrader

Reasonable harmonics/symmetry in this Bat and pretty good support zone with low risk. Price action is corrective so it would seem a good area to get on board a dollar reversal. The "maybe" in this trade is the .618 ?? Will it pull price action through my stops and then reverse ??? Rules say take the Bat with stops at 1.13 fib ext of X to A ~~~~ The Mental battle...

dojitrader

Looks like my alternate count was a 4th wave after all. So, still trying to get in on the 3 drive that I talked myself out of just before the 4th of July camp trip. Maybe this is the wave 2 or B to finally join the party. Of course, nothing is so simple for not quite a Cypher, Cypher lurks above and a wave 2 can retrace all of wave 1 and still be valid. Perhaps...

dojitrader

The 3 drive has pretty good looking harmonics/symmetry, But, EW suggests this will fail - unless - price action is an expanded flat with the b wave touching the 1.27 fib ext before c wave to the upside. If a regular a-b-c correction ends about the .500/618 fib that would project a downside run shooting well past my stop levels. traderWgun also has an EW count...

dojitrader

And the Big Figure 1.0600 is right on the fib ~~~~~~ For more pull to the downside. So where to put the stops ? The 1.13 of X to A as on the chart or below the .618 Fib ? I hope the candlesticks really put on a show or I'll probably not take the trade unless it hits 1.0600 If this one does not reverse immediately at point D I can see it easily drop below X -...

dojitrader

The primary count is a 1-2, however that means it could easily retrace all of wave 1 and retest the highs. {{or at the very least the 3 drive entry @ the .786 fib}} IF this is a B wave a retracement between the .500 & .618 would be ideal area to short. IF this is a 4th wave, the least likely to me, a retracement should end about current levels - above the .382 but...

dojitrader

A 7 wave double would be ideal at the top of the channel. Even if the correction continues the probabilities indicate some kind of downside before this corrective price action becomes more complex. A clear 5 waves of C would create more confidence in the signal for a short ~~~~ Of course, almost nothing is so simple or so clear and perfect, so, I'm wondering...

dojitrader

Such a conundrum ! The measured move of the triangle points to .88295 But, There is the possibility of a 3 drive @ 1.618 fib ext that points to .8845 which is 4 pips above the August 2011 high of .8841 Hard to imagine not testing the high so I think I'll ignore the thrust target and wait for the 3 Drive short. So far, price action seems to be building an extended...

dojitrader

Of all the Aussie pairs this seems to be the clearest pattern of 5 impulsive waves down and a-b-c 3 wave flat type 3-3-5 correction unfolding. I'm thinking this will hold about the area of the trend line break, of course, it could go higher, especially if this is a 2nd wave as my primary count indicates. Perhaps the C wave will show a clear 5 waves to clarify...

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Thought for sure I'd seen someone publish this chart, but, the little light bulb of published charts does not show up when lit, sooooo, I'll throw it out there. The best part of this is the easily, well defined risk with X right at the .500 fib and 4hr/Dly chart resistance. If there is a clear EW count in what I hope is a Y/C wave I'll add it to the comments. (so...

dojitrader

This trade is setting up with "the look" that is usually important for a 3 drive harmonics/symmetry. The only problem is the length of the 1st 2 drives @ about 300 pips or so, places the 3rd drive about 40/50 pips above the 1.272 entry and previous high on the Daily chart. Seems inevitable that the high will be tested. Perhaps the candlesticks w/rsi will yield...

dojitrader

A "regular" Shark would be point D at .886, But, with the immediate reversal within a pip of the 1.13 fib ext for point C and the impulsive nature of the price action since, Plus, the daily high @ .96.50 it seems to me that the only short target worth taking will be the extended 1.13 point D So, The candlesticks will have to create the best pattern possibly to...