About meI am a purely technical trader who uses classic chart patterns, price action and momentum analysis. I do run a set of indicator-based strategies too.
I specialize in early trend-following and I am a swing trader on the 1H, 4H and Daily timeframes.
NDX is trading close to a double bottom and underneath a significant trendline that describes the recent bearish trend since the beginning of 2022.
I plotted the FED FUND RATE at the bottom of the chart. With the start of higher interest rates, the NDX fell continuously.
Will a change in CPI data later today also lead to a change in trend direction in...
After the range breakout on Tuesday, Copper has been rallying higher.
Traders refer to this market as Doctor Copper since it indicates economic health. I plotted the correlation to the S&P500 below the chart and the positive correlation between the two markets is visible most of the time.
The 4.4 area above the current price is a significant Supply area although...
As we move into CPI day, the EURUSD has stalled below the 1.08 level for the last three days.
Last week, the rejection of the Monthly Pivot Point was a significant bull signal that led to the rally into 1.08
Looking at the three key moving averages (20, 50, 100), we see they are fanned bullish. The 20 SMA shows signs of rounding due to the recent lack of...
What an interesting chart.
After price hit the 200 Daily SMA with a triple tap (divergence pattern), price has just arrived at a major support cluster where the Monthly Pivot, the 100 SMA and a previous support area meet. Below, the big round number 100 is waiting closely too.
A pullback into the 200 Daily SMA during the current year*s dowtrend is usuaully...
The price is pushing strongly into resistance after breaking and retesting the 200 Daily SMA.
The 100 Daily SMA is about to touch the 200 Daily SMA. A break of the short term MA above the long term MA would signal a bullish scenario.
A break below the trendline would probably lead to more sideways trading into the end of the year.
EURUSD broke above the 200 daily SMA end of November for the first time since June 2021 >> red line.
We haven´t seen a pullback yet which is usually a common behavior after breaking a major resistance level.
Above current price, the round number 1.08 is waiting but price seems to be lacking momentum at the moment.
The price is already trading around the weekly...
Gold is at an interesting confluence cluster currently.
1807 (yellow) has been a strong support and resistance area since May 2022 and continues to be now.
Price is also trading around the 200 Daily SMA (red).
The 100 and 50 Daily SMA (green) are about to cross wich is generally considered to be a bullish signal. However, since the cross is happening below the...
Those are the situations where the pros separate themselves from the amateurs.
The amateurs can't wait to get into a trade because:
1. They don't want to miss the short
2. They want to be first to make more money
3. It already "feels" like it will drop
The professionals wait for the actual confirmation and a close with momentum that would signal a new low....
As of writing this, Gold is just breaking out above 1327 which has been the previous high.
The uptrend which started in end 2018 is still going strong and a confirmed breakout could open the door to 1360 which marks the major high from early 2018.
The Trend Rider indicator confirms the trend as it should and as ling as the momentum bars at the bottom confirm...
Crude Oil is trying to form an inverse H&S but the neckline at 54.70 is still holding up.
The area between 54.70 and 50.76 has been a range market previously (green box) and the price seem to be struggling now too.
However, as long as the price keeps making higher lows, the bullish sentiment still holds up. Only a break below 50.76 would change the outlook.
Lumber is building an interesting range bottom pattern.
The rising highs indicate somewhat buying interest, but the current resistance at 373 held multiple times in the past.
If it does act as resistance once again, it might be possible to time a short trade on the lower timeframes. The last daily candle already indicates slowing momentum.
A break above the...
The GBPJPY has already broken through an important support level.
Right now, the price is stalling at a previous spike-candle. Those spike points can often carry a lot of trading interest and, thus, do not break as easily.
But the whole price story seems to be pointing towards more short pressure.
The CHFJPY just cleared its support which was established after the huge spike. It took the market some time to figure out what the next move might be,
If the breakout succeeds, the price has a good chance covering the spike-gap. Those areas often offer trading opportunities because there is little that could stop price from falling lower.
At the same time, the...
Silver showed a perfect breakout pattern this week and although the Gold chart showed the same characteristics, the price of Gold is, so far, able to withstand the sell-off.
However, it feels like the pressure on Gold is building and if the current 1278 level breaks, it could set up a sell-off as well.
Once again, do NOT trade such patterns based on feel but...
In this video I show you how to perform a Daily --> 4H --> 2H top-down analysis, mark up a chart and come up with a trading scenario.
Do not make it too complicated. Look for levels that are close by, draw support/resistance, look for impulsive supply/demand and identify trade trigger entries.
Keep it simple!
First of all, we need to understand what momentum actually means but this is straightforward.
Momentum = Trend strength
To improve your foundation in technical analysis, it pays off to look at trend strength, angles of trending structures and if you can spot a change in the sentiment.
Whether you are a trend-following or a reversal trader, those skills are...
The S&P E Mini shows pre-breakout behavior. The price is currently breaking the 2608 resistance level. The candle is currently not closed and, thus, it is not a confirmed signal. At the same time, the price is also pushing into the upper Donchian channel which is also a bullish sign. But both signals need the confirmation of a candle close.
The 100 period MA (50...
The NZDCHF just hit an important level and the previous support level could become the new resistance.
Momentum-wise, things are still looking more bullish than bearish but the market has put in a pause. Maybe due to BREXIT talks!? Many Forex pairs seem to be stuck in a range at the 4H timeframes.
As always, when the market is trading at those key levels, it...