About meI am a purely technical trader who uses classic chart patterns, price action and momentum analysis. I do run a set of indicator-based strategies too.
I specialize in early trend-following and I am a swing trader on the 1H, 4H and Daily timeframes.
Those are the situations where the pros separate themselves from the amateurs.
The amateurs can't wait to get into a trade because:
1. They don't want to miss the short
2. They want to be first to make more money
3. It already "feels" like it will drop
The professionals wait for the actual confirmation and a close with momentum that would signal a new low....
As of writing this, Gold is just breaking out above 1327 which has been the previous high.
The uptrend which started in end 2018 is still going strong and a confirmed breakout could open the door to 1360 which marks the major high from early 2018.
The Trend Rider indicator confirms the trend as it should and as ling as the momentum bars at the bottom confirm...
The GBPJPY has already broken through an important support level.
Right now, the price is stalling at a previous spike-candle. Those spike points can often carry a lot of trading interest and, thus, do not break as easily.
But the whole price story seems to be pointing towards more short pressure.
The CHFJPY just cleared its support which was established after the huge spike. It took the market some time to figure out what the next move might be,
If the breakout succeeds, the price has a good chance covering the spike-gap. Those areas often offer trading opportunities because there is little that could stop price from falling lower.
At the same time, the...
Lumber is building an interesting range bottom pattern.
The rising highs indicate somewhat buying interest, but the current resistance at 373 held multiple times in the past.
If it does act as resistance once again, it might be possible to time a short trade on the lower timeframes. The last daily candle already indicates slowing momentum.
A break above the...
Silver showed a perfect breakout pattern this week and although the Gold chart showed the same characteristics, the price of Gold is, so far, able to withstand the sell-off.
However, it feels like the pressure on Gold is building and if the current 1278 level breaks, it could set up a sell-off as well.
Once again, do NOT trade such patterns based on feel but...
Crude Oil is trying to form an inverse H&S but the neckline at 54.70 is still holding up.
The area between 54.70 and 50.76 has been a range market previously (green box) and the price seem to be struggling now too.
However, as long as the price keeps making higher lows, the bullish sentiment still holds up. Only a break below 50.76 would change the outlook.
In this video I show you how to perform a Daily --> 4H --> 2H top-down analysis, mark up a chart and come up with a trading scenario.
Do not make it too complicated. Look for levels that are close by, draw support/resistance, look for impulsive supply/demand and identify trade trigger entries.
Keep it simple!
First of all, we need to understand what momentum actually means but this is straightforward.
Momentum = Trend strength
To improve your foundation in technical analysis, it pays off to look at trend strength, angles of trending structures and if you can spot a change in the sentiment.
Whether you are a trend-following or a reversal trader, those skills are...
The S&P E Mini shows pre-breakout behavior. The price is currently breaking the 2608 resistance level. The candle is currently not closed and, thus, it is not a confirmed signal. At the same time, the price is also pushing into the upper Donchian channel which is also a bullish sign. But both signals need the confirmation of a candle close.
The 100 period MA (50...
The NZDCHF just hit an important level and the previous support level could become the new resistance.
Momentum-wise, things are still looking more bullish than bearish but the market has put in a pause. Maybe due to BREXIT talks!? Many Forex pairs seem to be stuck in a range at the 4H timeframes.
As always, when the market is trading at those key levels, it...
The EURNOK has completed a Donchian shift from the lower to the upper channel.
The price is breaking out of the 9.81 resistance as well as of typing this. HOWEVER, the breakout will only be confirmed with a successful close outside of the level.
The 150 SMA is waiting for the price just a few points higher.
If the breakout succeeds and if the price can stick...
The CAD has shown the worst performance against the USD lately, resulting in a small recovery after the strong trend in the USDCAD.
The CAD strength is also visible when looking at the EUR. Whereas the EURCAD hasn't moved at all, the EURNZD rallied higher significantly - the CAD is keeping the EURCAD from making a move and it's holding against the EUR.
Just like Gold, Silver has shown a great bullish trend lately.
Now, however, both precious metals have slowed down and put in a range period.
The boundaries are well defined between 15.87 and 15,27 and this should also mark your no-trade zone. At least if you are active on the higher timeframes, you must wait for a clear and confirmed breakout.
So far we have...
As mentioned on Monday, the USD short was looming over many pairs and the USDSGD (see linked idea) and the USDNOK, as indicated, have played out as very good movers.
The EURUSD breakout is also shaping up as we speak and a break of 1.15 seems likely at the end of the day.
Will this set the theme for the next weeks and will the USD weakness persist? The USDX is...
With the USD lower, and even showing early signs of a potential breakout pattern, the EURUSD is back at its resistance.
It also just met up with the 100 period daily MA.
A clean, strong and confirmed break above 1.15 could set up more bullish momentum and even potentially start a new trend for 2019.
How do you see the USD in 2019?
meanwhile, the USDNOK and...
ETH has been ranging lately between 165 and 150 after a good bullish run.
The price currently still shows more bullish than bearish signals but if 150 breaks to the downside, we could see a deeper correction.
172 is another important key level to the upside but if ETH is able to clear the resistance, the next upside target can be found at 209 which has been a...
The USDSGD just broke out below its multi-week support level and the US-Dollar Index is also showing signs of weakness.
The only thing that makes this market unattractive to trade is the noise on the left. The last time the price visited those lows, there was a lof of back and forth and the price squeezed the shorts multiple time.
Even worse, the price will be...