Pure speculation for fun. Don't make important decisions based on this.
Gloves tend to lead KLCI recovery after a crash.
SPX mid-term seasonality likely sideways at best before Q4 or with a bottom in September before rising towards mid-term elections in November.
If KLCI were to "crash" and follow this pattern, it will start in August and bottom in...
Forecast based on:
- Mid-term seasonality (down in summer, spikes a few months before mid-term elections)
- Fed announcements that they will likely hike in July and September and 'we'll see' after that. Possible formation of a spring in September assuming Fed announces no further hikes
- Inflation peaks and starts to fall
- US government has...
From 2003 to 2018, each cycle from peak to peak for FINANCE index lasts between 36-46 months. Recent high in early May 2022 is equivalent to 49 months.
- Negative divergence on monthly chart (CCI)
- Similar negative divergence also appear on the monthly chart for big caps like PBBANK, MAYBANK, HLBANK, CIMB.
- Never bought bitcoin or shitcoins in my life
- My personal long term outlook is negative - my assumption is BTC and others were created to mop up excess liquidity and also divert funds from real GOLD while smart money accumulate physical GOLD. Governments will never allow a "free" "decentralized" "power to the people" "digital gold" currency to...
Regardless of your political bias, here's the bullish case
- Pandemic, regulatory clampdown, China-fear mongering has driven stocks down
- Broke down from pennant in April 2022 but recovered and closed within pennant - bear trap?
- Structural shift in new world order (see Ray Dahlio's animated explanation www.youtube.com)
Rationale for bull case:
1. Extreme bearishness - worse than March 2020 levels
2. RSI near oversold
3. FOMC meeting on Wednesday, sell on rumor, buy on news. 50 basis points hike priced in.
4. Peak inflation likely to be reported
The 5 April 2021 gap looks too enticing to not want to reach and bounce off it.
My bet is that smart money has that as their target all along and will find a news trigger to bring it down 5% in a swift scary move over the next couple of days (Friday seems likely candidate) to set up a bear trap.
Shortly after... everything is good, FOMC (next week) doesn't hike...
Tech upcycle which began around 2013 has come full swing and is coming to an end. We are at dotcom bubble stage.
Smart money has completed distribution and has engaged "labor activist" to trigger the mark-down phase. Protect your money.
Expect VS Industry to gradually drop to around $0.20 (>70% decline)
Based on wyckoff accumulation pattern I believe BABA is at Phase C where a sharper price fall will provide a final shakeout of weak hands before providing the spring to reversal.
HKEX has finally reached down to long term support.
Purple line has provided support since the 1990s
A closer look at weekly chart -- will...
SPX*US10Y provides early warning that market peak is near. We reached that upper red line last week.
Based on past track record, a peak is near (3 months to 14 months away).
However, based on the speed with which the US10Y rate has climbed, I suspect the peak may be nearer than previous.
This does not mean markets will start going down. It may still go up or...
Volatility contracting for 2 years
- US CBP ban FGV late 2020 for labor issues (as well as SIMEPLT, TOP GLOV, SUPERMX, YTY)
- Today Feb 2022, CBP held a unusual press conference with Malaysian reporters hailing positive impact of the bans and basically provide a positive spin:...
Expectations: Consolidation for 1-2 weeks followed by possible spike after Olympics ends (Russian invasion of Ukraine? In the past Russia has launched invasion just before or right after Olympics) Note the attendance of Putin at the Beijing Winter Olympics with Xi Jin Ping.
Long short term.
Short medium term.
Long long term.
SPX coiling and readying for a big move by Valentine's day.
AAII sentiment 44% bearish vs 27% bullish. I take that as bullish outlook for stocks.
USA covid cases has peaked and are falling quickly towards the base by next week. Possibility of covid being declared endemic next week thereby triggering a melt up?
The 40+ years bull cycle that began after the delinking of USD and gold standard is coming to an end.
We are most likely at the final topping stage. Expecting peak around 5300 in the SPX within 3-6 months.
Volume has shown a negative divergence vs SPX index since the Great Financial Crisis.
US10Y interest rates forming...
Bigger picture - this cycle that started after the 1998 Asian financial crisis is coming to an end.
Expecting a major 70-80% drop possibly in first half of 2022.
Prior to this we may have a year-end rally and final melt-up in the US exchanges.
Stale bulls above 50-52k
Losing momentum with negative divergence across many indicators RSI, MACD, MFI, CMF, Stoch, etc
Repeat of past cycles' pattern. Sharp rally towards ATH after major drop, only to fall just short and then a bigger fall follows.
May break 52k to break a bull trap before falling
Wait patiently at below 20k