I'm super bearish now but always extremely sceptical of big moves like this. They so often snap back. Taking some long positions. I'd really not be surprised to see most/all of the bear gains of the day taken late day. Market loves to screw both sides. Really swing bearish now. Scalping long, if it works.
I'm super bearish now but always extremely sceptical of big moves like this. They so often snap back. Taking some long positions. I'd really not be surprised to see most/all of the bear gains of the day taken late day. Market loves to screw both sides. Really swing bearish now. Scalping long, if it works.
Had been hedged from 3940 - 3960 on swings. Exiting my shorts 3915. Now have full long exposure. Longs stopped out under 3987 and short re-entry ideally 4150.
Might be due to see a big spike up in this. Would be great to get to position into 35K. Long with super tight stops. I like the RR.
Looks like the conditions for bear exit. Updates on bear trades if we break 3930. Long now. Intend to re-position into rally.
Looks like bull failure. Looking to short again test of previous exit. #SPX short limit 3996 Stop 4029 Target 3730 Swing stops long at 3887 not hit. Will exit these if we bounce. One last try on the day trade long 4910 Stop 3896 Target 3979 Will sell into rally if break.
Similar premise to my SPX long position. If these fail I'll wait for the bear move to develop a bit and hopefully get to short retest of my bear exit/bull entries. Hopefuly a big bounce to kick out the late comer bears and set up the real bear trade.
Shorts from 4150 - 4160 going well. Time to take protective measures. Trailing stops and staying in as long as we make lower lows and lower highs. Looking for possible bull ops and certainly to lock in bear profits 3970. If there's a big bull trap, I expect it around 3960. And I expect it to be VICIOUS. Bull should feel invincible into the turn.
Might be set to see gold and stocks break at the same time. If this happens, I think we might end up seeing gold under 1000 (For transparency, I've said since 2015 sooner or later gold was going under 1000 - I've been wrong before). Harmonic filled. I pick my words careful here - if these warning signs in stocks and gold come to pass, I expect to see the USD...
Previous crude analysis called for an new high, and I think this spike out move is still a risk for shorts but the easy long trade is probably over. The short may come without a new high. Good spots to enter short here. If there's a spike up I'll get out but probably be coming in again as a seller once things calm down. Being short during parabolic is never fun....
Positioned pretty heavily short into the 4150 - 4160 area. If we break over 4195 my current short plans will be scraped and a full re-write required. Here's a map up of what things may look like if the positioning is correct but the market has a few more games to play. My primary goal in such a scenario, is to have myself well set to short the retest. To not...
If we were to extrapolate the typical downtrend/crash fibs levels onto the SPX and look for the full extension of these, this would be the typical trading path. Breaks 161 fib. Ranges and bull traps (Blue) Breaks 161 fib second time and into stronger selling (Red) Makes a spike low and enters into a bull market (Albeit slow, ranging for while) Important...
We might be about to see the breaking out of yields. If we're not making a top here - yields to moon.
The forecast implied by the 161 fib failure is a downtrend that fails to break previous big highs and does not make a really significant low until 50% off the high. There will be ups and downs in the middle, but when looked at in a broad context - 50% down off the high. 4150 is the 161 fib and it's testing it now. This post is for the purposes of testing...
See previous below. SPX can chop around this level for a while. I think there's a strong chance of an massive sell-off from a retest of it, but even if this is happening it can range for a long time. So, this "Might be it" - but there's also a lot of anti-climax scenarios. Most crashes start with a breaking and rejection of this 161 fib level from the last...
The bearish Elliot waves continue. Old legs original, I've marked in the recent 5 leg down after the ABC.
Major test for the bulls today/this week. If they lose it, I think we're seeing failure of the trend. A big bull trend (Even if we're just talking the 2021 rally) will not fail gracefully. That's not how trends fail.
TSLA , AAPL and MSFT are my top picks for shorts. Adding to my AAPL now.