Follow up to an October 2021 post. BAC bull trap may have now triggered.
The fact we've not seen a big spike out of the 423 on the SPX chart of this same swing bothers me. Chills me to my beary bones, tbh I know the extreme pain that tends to come shorting before a spike out. The move is so harsh it's very hard to short into the next high if you do not either stop out well and/or hedge reverse well. SPX chart below so you can see where...
A post for record keeping purposes. I've spoken about why I think a major decision gets made here for over a year, we've now broken and are in a retest. A rejection of this fib (With some spike out tolerance), I think would be highly significant.
I am short all the Darlings now. All the big names. MSFT is my top pick. MSFT was the hardest fight into the high (I've got scars) but now is the clearest break. Shorting a 76 retracement of the bear move today targeting 20% drop.
Following up from the 161 break signal, now positioning for the big swing.
Rejected off the 161 so far. Shorting into the retrace for the bigger drop.
We've seen a full bubble and pop pattern in this pair. We're now into the "Despair" section of this, which is usually where the bull comes back in.
Bit early last time. Stopped out some. Floated some. Trying again now. Call spreads: 4100 - 4200 & 4200 - 4300 spreads. OTM puts: Long 3800, 3700 and 3500 strikes. Short 3200 strikes for spreads. Expiries end of June, July and August for variance smoothing. Target close 3400.
Unless the market tells me I'm totally wrong. Trade plans always have actionable entry and exit levels. But theoretically, I'm going with crash starting Sept/Oct and heading to 2000. I think for this to happen, within the next month or two bears need to tag 3400. I'm short for that move currently. Net bullish for a couple month, big short in Sept/Oct and...
I think we're into optimal conditions for tighter stop SPX entries targeting a spike out of the last low. Taking some bigger day trading style (In terms of larger size/tighter stop) entries now.
One could argue the GBP made a bear break in 2015 on the Brexit news and then it just went into a very long correction of that. Were one to take that view, we'd be waiting for corrective patterns. In 2018 a bearish butterfly started to form, and now we're getting into the action end of that. If 2015 was a breakout, the following Sterling move can be exceptional.
3900 I think is a really important level. Was mega bullish heading into it. Shorting a massive amount of puts into the hit of it and the run down to 3820. Made a full exit of my short puts positions and am currently short 4100 - 4200 call spreads and long various OTM puts, most of which at least 5 - 10% under current prices / entry prices. I think if this...
Ain't that some stuff? I've seen such ruthless spike outs of these 423 fibs that I still really would feel much better if that has happened and remain open to adapting trade plans for that if it happens, but I've marked in the typical implied pattern for this when the 423 is rejected. We usually head back to the 127 (Lot of ups and downs on the way, but that's...
The doji is a known indecision candle. When you see a big doji on a big chart it's (Usually) telling you the market is setting up to make a large decision on direction. Doji candle very strongly implies the market has found a level where it's going to make a really important decision. It goes big one way, big the other way and settles in the middle....
Am short most of the majors now vrs USD. EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD short. USDCAD and USDCHF long. As per
And also sizing all of the recent things I've posted large possible trend failure levels on, but do not have time for a full update sweep. Suffice to say I'm very short into the current prices. Under 4100, I think we'll see strong bears. Waiting to see if we can take it. Positioning into the rally.
I doubt the long is going to make it. It has an off feel to it. The general market feels shaky. Shorting DIS.