Volatile market conditions tend to be quiet and fairly still for long periods of time and then over short periods of time tremendous moves happen. Big moves often happen after fake-out moves in the other direction. The market swinging rapidly to both sides and then settling into a strong move in one direction. These are all very hard things to deal with on the...
Finally BABA has reached its big 161. Not only reached it, held it and tested it. I like that. I'm a BABA buyer. Stop loss if the 161 breaks (If the 161 breaks this can go to hell). Also selling puts on BABA with same stop.
Bubbles of the shape and style ARKK has formed will usually have a capitulation swing here that spikes out the big previous support base. This is the panic stage of the cycle and where people frequently sell out at the low. This could be as much as a 50% capitulation. And that completes the pop of ARKK bubble.
Does not look like the buy trade will make it. Back to short and have pending order in at 7 if we get there.
Looks like the long trade will fail. Messy range. Big huge spike above the last base. Hyper parabolic day. All warnings I tend to see in false breaks. GME can extend to 161 fib of range if spiking lower. Which would fully complete the GME forecast to 50 made some time when it was 350 or so in 2021.
Nothing I am seeing is worrying me as a bear and I have not seen any of the big things I was looking to see for bulls in control. Continuing to build up swing short - I think if there's another break, it will be the pick of the bunch of short ops in 2022, so far.
Adding to my lotto puts position. Happy to buy a few more of these all the time we hold in a range. If a bear break is coming, we edge closer and closer. Would be a really big one if it came. Hard to see how the next downswing would not be 10% down overall if bears break. Big flush.
This may make a move down and break the lows here, breakouts from these formations usually extend to at least the 161 fib of the range. Big RR ops shorting high in the range here.
SPX trades at major support but has had various closes under it on big charts and all the rips around it are stuttering and seem to be failing. SPX may soon break these big supports. Upon breaking 3800 (Maybe after sharp rally), I think this heads into a series of strong down moves with a final target in the 3300 area.
Time to be a bit more aggressive and speculative in the betting I think. Buying deep OTM puts on SPX for 3700 and 3500 strikes while we 3900. Have some with 2 weeks and they go up to 2 months. I'm also shorting call spreads against the 4060 - 4100 strikes. Essentially making my main bet the market will not go above there, I'll breakeven if that happens - and...
Bulls were not as impressive as I have hoped to see them if I'd remained in my long portfolio. Up through the day but only into resistance levels. Starting to swing position short in Nasdaq for a big break.
About optimal entry levels for shorts if this break is coming I think. If we go over 4100 the short setup has failed. Typically high 3970 - 4030. Shorting 3970 Stop 4137 Target 3530
If this range we've been in over the last while in crude turns into a bull trap a vicious bear breakout is likely. If crude breaks through the lows again we could have the popping of a bubble and a full retrace of that move. Could easily be 40 or lower, just before 40 a good swing target for set and forget style trade.
SPX may be heading into the "Fear" stage as per the classic bubble template. The phases of which were marked out previously here. The way the fear stage usually works is the market has ups and downs for a while but pushes overall lower and then once certain key supports go, the ground opens up. There's a really strong and fast sell-off and by the final 1/5 or...
Getting back into my long USD position. I think DXY is a good buy again at 102 and I think if we see 110 breaking we'll see 140. The next USD breakout could be a really strong move if it happens. Profits should be protected if we get into the 110 area which is where sellers are likely to come in if the bull is not going to break it.
Revising a post from several months ago highlighting where I thought the critical break level would be, now we have made that break and follow through breaks, typically we'd be looking at targeting the 423 fib of it. This comes in around 12 - 13K. These are ideal targets for shorts. BTC may be a buy around 10 - 11K, will review if we get there. Previous:
Through Thursday and Friday I built up a big swing long position but am selling this into the open for small profit or breakeven results. I think the risk of us seeing major trend failure in SPX now is high. Bulls need to take 4100 to be convincing and if they give up 3800 I think we're heading down to 3300 without any really major supports, only rapid bounces...
EURUSD isn't at my target level but the trade is well up. I think we might be heading back to the floor. In line with my exit from stock positions on the retests of my entry, I am also getting back into my USD long position now it has had a strong counter-trend rally.