Through Thursday and Friday I built up a big swing long position but am selling this into the open for small profit or breakeven results. I think the risk of us seeing major trend failure in SPX now is high. Bulls need to take 4100 to be convincing and if they give up 3800 I think we're heading down to 3300 without any really major supports, only rapid bounces that fade fast along the way. I've began to build up my short portfolio again. Long USD, short crypto and short stocks.
I think if there's another swing down we'll have what a lot of people will term a crash but I think is better defined as a break. A "Crash" tends to imply most of the event is behind. A break would imply we retest 3900 - 4000 level after the 3300 swing down and then we crash. 50% down. 4000 - 2000 ish, bit of variance on either side.
If we see SPX 3300 it's probably a good place to take long positions with 3140 stops - and it's probably time to put in the very serious planning for a very legit crash.
Before a real crash, the warning signs will be very clear if you know what you're looking for.
I think if there's another swing down we'll have what a lot of people will term a crash but I think is better defined as a break. A "Crash" tends to imply most of the event is behind. A break would imply we retest 3900 - 4000 level after the 3300 swing down and then we crash. 50% down. 4000 - 2000 ish, bit of variance on either side.
If we see SPX 3300 it's probably a good place to take long positions with 3140 stops - and it's probably time to put in the very serious planning for a very legit crash.
Before a real crash, the warning signs will be very clear if you know what you're looking for.