SPX may be heading into the "Fear" stage as per the classic bubble template. The phases of which were marked out previously here.
The way the fear stage usually works is the market has ups and downs for a while but pushes overall lower and then once certain key supports go, the ground opens up. There's a really strong and fast sell-off and by the final 1/5 or so of it everyone feels like it's a break - and it is ... but often it then returns all the way to the previous break level before the real drop comes (Which is not shown in the basic chart model, but I do find happens a lot in real examples).
If the fear stage plays out, we should prep for capitulation into the retest. Best guess at this point would be somewhere around 4000 - 4200 sometimes late Q3 or early Q4. But this is subject to review based on how the market moves. I'm thinking down pretty fast and then the bull move taking longer to complete, perhaps a few months in total before we're seeing full completion of the new bear entry signals.
The way the fear stage usually works is the market has ups and downs for a while but pushes overall lower and then once certain key supports go, the ground opens up. There's a really strong and fast sell-off and by the final 1/5 or so of it everyone feels like it's a break - and it is ... but often it then returns all the way to the previous break level before the real drop comes (Which is not shown in the basic chart model, but I do find happens a lot in real examples).
If the fear stage plays out, we should prep for capitulation into the retest. Best guess at this point would be somewhere around 4000 - 4200 sometimes late Q3 or early Q4. But this is subject to review based on how the market moves. I'm thinking down pretty fast and then the bull move taking longer to complete, perhaps a few months in total before we're seeing full completion of the new bear entry signals.