So I have been waiting for commodities currencies bulls for quite a while, BUT WHERE ARE THEY?
The election results was good but a dovish Aussie Central Bank reversed almost all of the aussie strength.
Nonetheless, price action seems overextended and we may see some weakness in Euro PMI numbers - which MAY trigger the decline in EURXXX (and hence EURAUD).
Excellent risk:reward trade on NZDUSD.
For technicals, we see price coming down to consolidate at a prior resistance zone, and MACD divergence.
Fundamentally, if there are positive news on the trade war front, commodity currencies like NZD is likely to get a boost. The dovishness of the Fed will also help to suppress US dollar strength.
Traders can look for...
USDSGD had rebounded at previous trendline and at the 0.382 of previous up-move. There also seems to be a clear 5 waves down that has completed, so I am expecting more consolidation for the time being.
This update comes a bit late, as taking profit once the above happened would have been ideal. Traders who are still in the position can shift their stop losses...
USDSGD did not break out of first target. Instead, price reversed sharply at resistance. We see a possible flat pattern and a good risk/reward ratio trade down. Will enter on pending breakdown of flag.
Expecting S&P 500 to rebound at the 0.236 or 0.382 levels, which coincides with the 200 ema on 4h and 1d, as well as is an area of support/resistance.
Will look to enter on sharp reversals at these levels, ESPECIALLY if it occurs together with positive fundamental news on the TRADE WAR front.
Expecting S&P500 to rebound at 0.236 IF it comes down to the level, as it would sit on that fib ratio AND probably 200D MA for both 4 hours and 1d.
However this is an early forecast so more confirmation will be needed then to confirm the validity of this.
Trump-Kim no deal?
Fear of Trump-Xi?
Time for gold to soar!
XAUUSD has bounced of the bottom of the channel/wedge that it has been in with a strong bar, we can take this as a high probability trade up higher as the investors shift their allocation into risk-off for the month of March.
USDSGD has deviated from history.
It Seems to have broken out of a wedge, so my current expectation for it is to go up and retest the trendline on a higher timeframe, before making another impulse down.