WellTrainedMonkey

WellTrainedMonkey

On the eve of NASDAQ:NVDA earnings report, it is interesting to note the $NQ price volume support has turned into overhead resistance as the $NQ struggles against the 0.786x retracement level and higher interest rates. The correction in 2022 was all about higher interest rates choking off growth and lowering implied equity premium to above +1x standard...

WellTrainedMonkey

Crypto is probably enjoying a tailwind from the SVB blow-up. Technically speaking, you can see the price-volume clusters around the $17k level which coincides with the 78.6% retracement level. Price action is confirming a price trough with capitulation volume seen during the Nov price trough and now a higher low on low selling volume.

WellTrainedMonkey

If there is ever a sign that there has been NO capitulation in this stock market, $NVDA has to be it because we still have uninformed reckless BTFD behaviour. Last night post-earnings price action was a case-in-point. Consider this, between Jan 2019 to Feb 2023, the stock has gone up c.8x while eps remains approximately the same at $1.76 for FY ending Jan 2023...

WellTrainedMonkey

So I keep hearing folks talk about a USD peak but I see a DXY which has broken out of a wedge and is now testing the break out. Using the EURUSD as a proxy (because it has a c.58% weight in the DXY), you can see the inverse:- 1. a breakdown from a continuation wedge, 2. test of the breakdown, 3. over-extended and mean reverting MACD 4. price volume support...

WellTrainedMonkey

This time is truly different as XLU is not the defensive stock as one would expect. Lower lows and lower highs with a declining MACD = more downside pain especially when the dividend yield of 3% pales in comparison to US2yr bills at c.4.6%.

WellTrainedMonkey

It is probably nuts to post this with less than 12hrs to go for a seemingly pivotal CPI print, but logically speaking, the CPI is a red herring. I am using the Q's as a proxy for US equities but the idea is generally applicable across multiple indices, sectors and key index heavies. Technically speaking, the Q's are testing a neckline support turned resistance...

WellTrainedMonkey

Buyers are showing up in droves as NatGas tests a massive congestion zone from 2019-2020 with significantly oversold momentum. Feels like a back-up the truck moment as Russia threatens to cut supply on price curbs.

WellTrainedMonkey

Volume has dropped off for the EURUSD as it retest the wedge breakdown, bulls be warned.

WellTrainedMonkey

Like the HSI trade idea, -2x standard deviation on the NQ1! makes it ripe for a rally. Not a bet the farm type scenario but time to think that it is so bad that it might actually be so good.

WellTrainedMonkey

Clearly not a bet the farm type situation but the HSI has traditionally staged a rally off big -2x standard deviation moves.

WellTrainedMonkey

If there is ever a chart that gives you the best equity warning signals in modern financial history, the Topix has got to be it as the 1.8k/2k level has preceded all major turning points. Couple of other warning signals for this cycle:- -> The collapse of bond prices, $ZB has broken down from a bear flag which implies interest rates are on the rise again. All...

WellTrainedMonkey

This is a public service announcement: I went for a run this morning and my condo security asked me how to buy BTC. I don't have a shoe shine boy, but this is as close as it gets. Does not help there is a negative divergence between the price action and stochastics. $BTC sitting on trend support and this is probably the time to think, are there more paper...

WellTrainedMonkey

Cafe de Coral is literally the kitchen of HK. Revenue and profitability growth has collapsed so much into negative territory that mathematically speaking, the year-on-year comparable are going to be very favorable in 2021 and 2022. Rental and labor cost, the 2 biggest cost components are going to act as a tailwind for the company (LTM operating margins of 2.6%...

WellTrainedMonkey

Short TSLA, the modern day widow maker trade, but perhaps this is the time to give it a go. We have the stock potentially making a lower high at the tail end of a parabolic move. Battery day came and went, by most accounts and by the price action, it was a flop. Just Elon trying to talk up his share price by saying manufacturing batteries in-house will be the...

WellTrainedMonkey

HSI peaked in 2018 and has been in a downtrend marked by persistent lower highs and lower lows. With 40+ odd days to US elections, expect more craziness out of Trump and China to push back by flexing its revitalized military. Anybody else noticed how most of the Chinese Wushu/war shows in recent years have featured Chinese fighting foreigner oppression? The...

WellTrainedMonkey

This market has been a momentum hound and weak dollar story. It is fair to say momentum is waning and the weak dollar might be in the rear view mirror as the DXY key component, the EURUSD has broken down at key multi-decade resistance. Keep an eye on it as stocks do puke every now and then.

WellTrainedMonkey

Gold has always been promoted as an inflation trade and it should be no surprise that the recent surge in gold is entwined in the Fed's debasement of the USD in the name of Covid-19 support. With the weaker USD, we see rallies in commodities such as oil etc as producers adjust prices to offset the weaker USD. With c.60% of the DXY denominated by the EURUSD and...

WellTrainedMonkey

When momentum stocks are running a little too hot, it is always good to take a look at some value names. China Unicom is so cheap that I had to double check the figures to be sure: -> 0.47x P/B, c.-2x standard deviation -> c.7.9% forward real earning yields, -2x standard deviation -> EV/EBITDA of 1.5x , -2x standard deviation it pays a divy yield of 3% and...