Small caps tend to whipsaw at the bottom, so the next couple of weeks may be hard to predict. Playing it by ear. More than likely not trading tomorrow and waiting to see what happens over the weekend with the Fed budget. I don't worry about nailing the bottom because I do short term trades. Just bet on days when you can figure out market direction.
Indicators are neutral, PCE numbers Friday premarket and possible fed shutdown Monday. If McCarthy decides to make a deal with the Dems and pass a spending bill without the 9 hardliners, then we'll probably see a big gap up and a melt up. McCarthy's Dilemma: www.bbc.com Made some money today, gonna stay cash until next week. I was thinking about shorting, but...
RSI and MFI hit overbought, gonna be a dip tomorrow (or tank) regardless of the fed budget news.
Well, it hit my pennant target and bounced. FDAX is also oversold. Went long on PCAR stock, plan to hold overnight as long as the market doesn't tank again in the last hour, lol. PCAR rarely gaps down more than 50 cents and it usually fills gaps, so going with my safe play. Garbage stocks might go into a short squeeze rally, but I'm not playing it.
I revised my chart to show a target band, the previous target was the minimum drop, and the market is almost there. I draw bear flags from the top of the drop, but a pennant target should actually be drawn from where it breaks the pennant. That is the lower target line. Plus with the garbage stock pump this morning, RTY hasn't hit my target yet. I assume we...
RSI and MFI both oversold but RSI has been tagging along that oversold line without any big pumps. I've been saying playing these bounces isn't worth the risk. Looks like I was right. Unemployment numbers tomorrow, PCE and PMI numbers Friday, Fed shutdown Monday. I don't bet against my indicators, so not shorting anything. I know I haven't been much help in...
Sorry, woke up late and missed the open. Anyways, 3hr ES MFI went oversold on the morning gap fill. I said yesterday a gap in either direction will fill, and it did. So possibly a bounce today and maybe even tomorrow on unemployment numbers, but more than likely just a quick pump and dump. STill going to wait until Monday.
Daily indicators are oversold, but the last time we had rate hikes and a fed shutdown, RTY went waaaay oversold. Not chasing the drop, but I've been warning my followers to wait until at least next week to go long. My advice has not changed.
Market probably bounces again because RSI went oversold, but then MFI will get overbought and we go back down. Expecting whipsaw all week, but I said that would happen last week. I also said next leg is probably down, and probably because of the Fed shutdown. My opinion stays the same. I overlayed the previous drop with some adjustments to make it fit. The...
MFI actually went overbought today and it still hasn't hit my blue target line. ES and NQ look like they want to bounce tomorrow but small caps may actually go down. Staying cash for now. As weak as the market looks, there's a possibility that it breaks the blue line, then all bets are off. You really don't want to be holding a long position if that...
3hr indicators oversold but it lost support in s similar fashion to the area I highlighted awhile ago. It might bounce tomorrow, but I think it goes lower. I've been pointing out how it went to ATH while the country is in a recession. It took a lot longer than I expected for it to sink into the market, lol. Craziness.
Looks like the daily bounced EOD today, but I'm not feeling all that bullish. Still expecting the market to hit my pennant target because of some "news". Probably the fed budget issue. I think I'm gonna play it safe and just take a break. Expecting the market to whipsaw, and I think timing is going to be tricky. Decided it's too risky to short anything with...
This is what I was warning everyone about, MFI is almost overbought with a gap down. PCAR already filled the gap so no play there. AFRM was green when I woke up so did a beer money bet with puts. RTY MFI is overbought. The market rarely gaps down 2 days in a row without filling the gap, so I'm not expecting much of a gap down tomorrow, but I do expect the...
MFI climbing fast but the market is going nowhere. That's bad news for bulls. Next leg down comes when MFI hits overbought. Best guess right now is a gap up tomorrow then tank. Futures don't always go in the same direction as MFI during off hours trading so gap direction is not guaranteed. I might buy some puts if MFI gets overbought on ES or NQ, but staying...
I keep saying Cathie's a moron, for some reason people keep interviewing her, lol. Anyways daily RSI hit oversold, but the major holdings like TSLA, ROKU, COIN, and ZM haven't so this has a lot more room to go down. Plus she's got such a huge chunk of garbage companies like PD that she doesn't have an exit plan. She actually thinks TSLA is headed to $2k, lol. ...
I wonder if the Euros finally realized they're in a recession, lol. FDAX lost support today. I don't expect the same tank as last year because some of that was due to the war in Ukraine. Regardless, it made absolutely no sense for FDAX to hit ATH during a recession. It;s the dumbest thing I've ever seen
End of the week (EOW) update, looks to me like the daily is gonna go oversold. I mentioned that RTY daily hasn't hit my target, and the pennant formation isn't complete on ES. I think we get a lot of whipsaw next week after it hits the target. I don't think I'm going long until the budget issue gets resolved in Congress. You can expect a gap up when it does,...
Still oversold but I dumped my PCAR stock on the gap fill this morning. That was my target. Quick 2k profit. So I was looking at chart formations, and if that formation I pointed out was a pennant, then the target is much lower. I think the market drifts sideways for a few days since it's oversold then tanks again.... maybe a federal shutdown happens, I dunno....