The USD tends to get a bump after a U.S. Presidential election but recall that the USD put in a massive top 6 weeks after the 2016 election. The same thing happened when Nixon was elected in 1972. In the 4 years that followed, the USD dropped sharply and rebounded. Sound similar? In 1976, the USD held up for a month after Carter was elected before getting...
AUDUSD price pattern is similar to 2016 as well. In 2016, AUDUSD barely took out its August high on election day and then reversed lower. This year, the high was on 9/1. I’m of the mind that AUDUSD trades lower from current levels but did want to share the comparison. This was originally published at scandex.com
Gold now and gold in 2016…almost identical. It’s as if ‘they’ forgot to change the election algorithm. Like EURUSD and JPY, gold saw a massive spike higher in 2016 before reversing and trending lower for a month. Be aware of 2000 for resistance in the event of a spike. This was originally published at scandex.com
A picture is worth a thousand words! Current EURUSD pattern is remarkably similar to 2016. Recall that in 2016, EURUSD spiked initially before plunging for the next month. If something similar were to happen, then EURUSD would spike to 1.1900 before reversing lower. This was originally published at scandex.com
Jamie Saettele discusses trends, market levels, and trade ideas for FX, indices, and major commodities.
EURAUD broke above a MAJOR level today. The level in question has been significant since August 2015. The cross also completed an ascending triangle bottom. The measured objective is 1.7114. The breakout level at 1.6590 should provide support now.
Gold has turned down from the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart, short term trendline, and 2011 high. Notice the action around the 2011 high over the last few months…gold remembers! Focus remains lower. 1760 appears critical for longer term support. This is the May high, near the 200 day average (see scandex.com), and is a parallel that crosses highs and...
Look at that 200 period average on the 4 hour chart in AUDJPY…impressive! Focus is lower as a result. 75.70s is proposed resistance now (see scandex.com). Eventual downside is significant as per the failed breakout on a longer term basis (see scandex.com). Downside swing levels to target are 72.00/50 (4th wave support in June and 2 equal legs down) and low...
AUDUSD short term level here...could bounce but trend is lower as long as price is within this channel. Proposed resistance is now .7210. A break here would open up .7080 as the next spot.
USDCNH has held a massive level defined by resistance in October 2017 and support from February-April 2019. Price has also turned up from the bottom of a steep bearish channel. The top of the channel is about 6.81. Strength above would be viewed as constructive. Also, every important turn over the last 3 years has been marked by non-confirmation between USDCNH...
USDJPY has finally sustained strength above the 25 line within the channel from the March high. This line had held as resistance since 6/30. The top side of the line should be support now near 105.50 (also the month open). The level is reinforced by short term trendline support. Upside focus is the top of the channel from the March high near 106.70, which is...
It’s awfully quiet out there. EURUSD is on pace for its smallest weekly range since 2/21, which of course is right before volatility exploded. Hopefully we get something similar now. My view on EURUSD hasn’t changed. Price continues to churn just under important resistance (neckline and VWAP). I’m presenting a new fork today. Notice how highs and lows since...
EURUSD is testing its breakdown level, which is the underside of the neckline. This level is also defined by VWAP from the high (see scandex.com) and the line off of highs in March and June, which was support on 9/17. I am looking for resistance to hold. Failure to do so would indicate a failed breakdown and be viewed in a bullish light.
AUDUSD has traded into former support at .7135 but respect potential for strength into .7190-.7220 before this rolls over. Again, the 9/9 low is .7190. VWAP from the high is currently .7220 and in line with the upper parallel of the short term bearish fork. A pullback into .7080/90 maybe in order before strength into .7190-.7220. I’m willing to buy that...
We last looked at the Wyckoff Distribution Schematic on 9/14. To review: I’m showing a Euro futures chart because volume must be incorporated when analyzing a market from a Wyckoff perspective. Volume on SOW (sign of weakness) days are highlighted with yellow circles. Notice how volume expanded into the BC (buying climax) and decreased on the ST (secondary...
GBPUSD has responded to 2020 VWAP. The top side of the just broken resistance line (see below chart) is proposed support along with Friday’s uncovered close at 1.2740. 1.3005/50s is a well-defined zone for resistance. This zone includes support from August and resistance from earlier this month. Visit scandex.com for more.
USDMXN broke above trendline resistance on Wednesday and reversed lower today in volatile trading. I’m focused on the top side of the just broken trendline for support near 21.74. Eventually, the 61.8% retrace of the decline from March is a candidate for resistance at 23.89. Visit scandex.com for more.
Not much change regarding EURUSD. Price did bounce near 1.1630 and resistance should be between 1.1720 and 1.1775 if reached. This zone has been an important pivot since July. Downside focus remains 1.1450-1.1500. Be aware that a break below the median line would likely lead to downside acceleration towards the target zone. Visit scandex.com for more.