BTCUSD remains above the June low despite continued downside in equities. Weekly RSI has turned up from under 30. 2015 and 2018 turns from below 30 led to prolonged bull runs. Price is also holding the trendline from the 2015 low. Bottom line, risk is well-defined. -Jamie
BTCUSD is sitting on the 2017 high and testing a nearly 8 year trendline. If 'risk assets' aren't going further in the toilet then this needs to hold. Failure to hold and I don't think there's any support until 9800 or so. -Jamie
ETHUSD sports 5 waves up from the June low and 3 waves down from the August high. The corrective decline also forms a perfect channel and former resistance (highs in June and July) was support today. BTCUSD traded beneath its June low today before recovering, leaving a non-confirmation with ETHUSD (well above its June low). The setup is constructive and also...
Following Up on yesterday's post regarding the 61.8% retrace in SPX...price has responded and the level I'm keeping an eye on is 3960, which has been key since late August. A move above there would be a big positive. -Jamie
The S&P just tagged the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the June low. Cash actually failed to reach the level but futures did reach. Anyway...good enough in my book. Given recent breadth readings (extreme 10 day NYSE A/D for example), I'm thinking that a low is in today. -Jamie Saettele
IF June was the low in SPX then 3910/45 probably needs to hold as support. This level is defined by highs and lows from mid-June to late-July. VWAP from the June low is just above the zone. The line that connects the June and July lows is towards the bottom of this zone as well. - Jamie
XLY is testing the recent breakout level (former resistance). A hold here would be viewed in a bullish context as former resistance will have become support. This is a key ETF to watch considering the heavy weights of AMZN and TSLA. - Jamie
Gold reversed sharply higher in July. The rally is impulsive. The pullback retraced exactly 61.8% of the decline. Put all of this in a petri dish and you get a bullish 'look'. I like gold higher. - Jamie
The decline in crude since March channels perfectly. This is either a pullback before another leg higher or a more drawn out consolidation (favored view). In any case, 102 looks like the next stop. 90.50-92 is support. -Jamie
Parallels, parallels, parallels. Simply, DXY channels perfectly from the 2008 low (log scale). Divergence with RSI is present at the high too...if that's your thing. The May high and 50 day average at 105 is the first big test on the downside. 107.50 is resistance. -Jamie
.7000/30 is well-defined in AUDUSD. Even if the 7/14 low is significant, a pullback from the current level 'makes sense'. .6850 is probably the spot to watch for support...there are a number of daily highs/lows around that level since mid-June. -Jamie
Today's move is important for BTCUSD. The median line of the long term fork has provided support. This line has been precise support and resistance 3 previous times. General focus is towards the well-defined 28600.
Pretty simple...you want to see anchored VWAP off of the low hold in SPY in order to have a constructive view. If this fails to hold (hold=daily close for me) then the next 'natural level' to focus on is the low.