jzhang396

jzhang396

Nothing fancy, US stocks are in a downtrend with downward pressure by a falling 50-week MA. RSI of 50-55 has been the upper bound of RSI all year and coincided with tops in January, March, and August. The 200-week MA is still rising and may provide near term support. However, in recessions this support is decisively broken (see 2020 and 2008). Given the...

jzhang396

Medium to long-term entry is reasonable here, but the 200 week MA is not a precise timing mechanism. If we are in a secular bear market, moving averages could reverse and no longer be reliable, as seen in 2007 - 09. Hopefully we are closer to the end than the beginning.

jzhang396 Updated 

The daily chart shows the beginning of a downtrend. Double top cup and handle pattern led to downward momentum from the handle to the 100 week MA. RSI on the weekly is week. The only other time PYPL has been this week was in March 2020. News of partnership with AMZN should hopefully ameliorate the drop of eBay. Adding to PYPL here and holding for the medium...

jzhang396

The S&P has had a rocky beginning this year. Returns are negative YTD after a strong 2021, which showed a strong uptrend on the 20 week MA. The 20 week MA has been broken and is now flat, converging to the 50 week MA. This may squeeze returns in the coming week. RSI is at 45, indicating no strong buy or sell signal. SPY is currently a HOLD. I believe we...

jzhang396 Updated 

LOGI has had a bumpy ride, zigzagging from overbought to oversold and back again. LOGI has been in a solid uptrend, and despite tough comps from consumer investment to streaming and peripherals for COVID, LOGI is still meeting and beating EPS and revenue expectations. RSI is low and MACD is weakening at the lows of the past year. Coupled with the 200 day SMA...

jzhang396 Updated 

Has a good yield, trailing earnings and looking to hold through earnings.

jzhang396 Updated 

2021 has been an easy year compared to the past 3. Max drawdown from high has been only about 5%. SPY hasn't touched the 200DMA all year. Momentum from the head and shoulders pattern may slow with RSI approaching overbought levels, but if SPY trades sideways from here the reappearance of near parallel moving averages could nudge SPY higher to the end of the...

jzhang396

Would you believe it if I said that the past 2 weeks have been the first time hitting the 100 day MA this year? 2021 up until now has been a very smooth ride. We haven't touched the 200 day at all this year. A 10% correction from the highs at the start of September would hit, maybe break the 200 day AND this support in May. I'm a long term bull, comfortable at...

jzhang396

It's so tempting. Almost begging for a straddle option. I don't have much by way of fundamental analysis on this, BDX is not in my circle of competence. However this pattern is so apparent that I can't help but point it out.

jzhang396

A weekly chart of the S&P 500 shows a clear bearish divergence on the RSI. RSI is making lower highs, while markets are making higher highs. When this occurs, it can be a signal that the market is losing steam, and that a reversal / dip may be coming. I have not sold out, but I am holding more cash in the short term. RSI being above 70 makes me less excited to...

jzhang396 Updated 

Looking at FB on the daily, the price along with major moving averages are converging to the 260-270 range. Depending on how earnings go, FB looks prime for a breakout in either direction, although I think this will break out to the upside. FB is trading at a reasonable ttm PE multiple compared to other FAANG stocks (26 compared to 30-40 for AAPL MSFT & GOOG)...

jzhang396

REGN is oversold on the daily, has hit an RSI floor of 35 that held in 2019 as it traded sideways, and is almost touching its 100 week MA. REGN has YoY has become more and more profitable, and is projected to grow at an annualized 11% over 5 years. My DCF calculations find it undervalued. This looks like an attractive buy point on a fundamental and technical...

jzhang396

QCOM is a good company with great tailwind for continued success. Their snapdragon processors for android devices continue to improve, and they are attractively priced relative to other semiconductors. QCOM beat on EPS, but slightly missed on revenue. However, given broader demand shocks for semis, I would not be surprised at beats in the future when supply...

jzhang396

I think AMD will go higher, and if it does not, BUY THE DIP, it DESERVES to rally. Why? My thoughts: AMD smashed their earnings. Year ended December 26, 2020 diluted EPS comes out to be 2.06! (sourced from ir.amd.com, on a GAAP basis) Thus, the trailing 12 month PE is 88/2.06 = ~42.71 On a ttm PE basis, AMD has not been this cheap since the beginning of 2019,...

jzhang396

I am not an analyst or an expert, just a guy who looks at companies he likes subjectively, then looks at the technicals (to the best of my ability) objectively to predict future trends. At this point in time, CRSR looks attractive. It has dropped from its $51 down to $32 and has bounced an slightly upward channel. There is also a wedge forming on the daily...