Bitcoin has rallied higher than most people expected. There seems to be a lot of calls for the moon and bullish sentiment but I don't think the bull-market has started just yet...
On the daily we have a diverging RSI, volume is falling and if we draw an Elliot-Wave (assuming wave 5 is roughly a 1:1 of wave 1) We should expect a top not much higher than our...
Looking at the terrible volume in the past few days and the 200 Moving average roughly lining up to a 1:1 extension of the wave A drop and the 0.618 level of I expect to see some relatively strong support there.
Looking at the daily timeframe since January it looks like we may be at the end of the "Bear Market" if this is a 5th wave failure and we don't get another lower low soon.
On the other hand if we do get a lower low and break below 6k I don't see much support until the $4400-$4900 range.BITFINEX:BTCUSD
If we can get some volume
BTC should break out of it's 2 week correction and hopefully start a new bullish trend.
We've seen a bit of sideways movement over the last 2 days indicating a big move could be about to happen.
We're at the top edge of the falling wedge (which is a bullish pattern) and rsi is trending up.
If we break above 7150-
It looks like the most likely scenario unless we can break back above 8100- soon is for COINBASE:BTCEUR to be taking a break from the bulls and heading down towards the 0.382 retracement level around 7700- level.
We have both the 50 and 100 EMA above us and a strong region of resistance around 8050-
We're again coming up to a strong resistance zone, but also getting close the support trendline.
COINBASE:BTCEUR breaks through the green resistance zone over 7600.
COINBASE:BTCEUR falls below the red support zone around 7000.
There will be a big move soon, the question is in what direction?
To me it looks like the Bearish...
Looking at the previous points of support & resistance and a hypothetical Elliott Wave count it looks like we're about to have a small break in our COINBASE:BTCEUR up-trend before continuing to more highs. This is also supported my the MACD and RSI both being on the high end on the 1h chart. But still being relatively low on the 4h and 1d charts.