lucky_human_foot

lucky_human_foot Updated 

real yields have been falling very quickly and look oversold. Could it be that it will rise now and bring silver up as well?

lucky_human_foot

A recession is incoming, the yield curve has turned negative and the euro is collapsing. Three good arguments for buying short-term treasury notes. And you still get 2,8 % return for a very safe investment. I think it is a strong buy.

lucky_human_foot

It looks like the Case-Shiller home price index is about to crash when comparing with mortgage rates and MBA US Market index. With inspiration from Twitter.

lucky_human_foot

If history repeats itself then both oil and stocks will crash like in 2008.

lucky_human_foot

Real Yields have been rising. Will gold fall then?

lucky_human_foot

Back then initial claims were also rising and the stock market was dropping. When the recession starts inflation will drop quickly.

lucky_human_foot

This sucker rally will end now and the stocks will fall from here. Dow is meeting to moving averages here, it is high on RSI and MACD and has made a top formation. VIX seems to have found a bottom.

lucky_human_foot

JPY looks oversold here, good chance to buy in. JPY has been sold because the Japanese need to buy oil with dollars and because they do not experience the same inflation as elsewhere and therefore do not need to raise rates immediately, it looks however as if it has gone too far.

lucky_human_foot

Currently the Federal Funds Rate is at 0 %. The Yield Curve is close to flat around 0.5 %. Inflation is at 7.5 %. IF the FED raises the Federal Funds Rate 0.5 % then the Yield Curve will go negative and start a recession. The FED cannot stop the current inflation without the yield curve going negative creating a major recession. This means that stagflation is...

lucky_human_foot

EURUSD has been correlated with inflation inspections until recently. This pair seems out of sync and another good reason to sell the dollar.

lucky_human_foot

Both the DXY and EURUSD charts point toward a drop in the dollar price.

lucky_human_foot

Baltic Dry Index is signaling a major drop in the DOW

lucky_human_foot

FED Transitory narrative does not seem to play out

lucky_human_foot

Apple is touching an upper trend line here. Could be a good selling point

lucky_human_foot

Vix is starting to make higher highs or at least signs of a trend change. Indicate of turnaround in the market?

lucky_human_foot

Inflation is out of sync with the Fed Funds Rate. The Fed will have to hike the Fed Funds Rate soon to stop inflation or at least stop asset purchases. The "Transitory inflation" narrative from the Fed is not going to materialize, meaning that inflation will drop without the Fed hiking the Fed Funds Rate or stopping asset purchases. The free "BRRRRRRRR" money...

lucky_human_foot

SP500 dividend yield has previously been a good indicator for when the SP500 is at a top. Will it also be this time? Currently it looks like it will turn for RSI/MACD on both daily, weekly and monthly.

lucky_human_foot

S&P looks like it could be at a top here