mbslack1

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Joined
Markets Allocation
38 % commodities 63 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPX 50% | 4 TY1! 25% | 2 ZNH 12% | 1 SPX500USD 12% | 1
mbslack1 mbslack1 TY1!, D, Long ,
TY1!: Long 10yr notes still
5 0 3
TY1!, D Long
Long 10yr notes still

Holding longs from last week and y/day; have sold some calls against but not full hedge.

mbslack1 mbslack1 SPX500USD, D, Short ,
SPX500USD: Taking profits
26 0 4
SPX500USD, D Short
Taking profits

Took some profits on the open; probably take some more if downside continues to fade. Looking for consolidation... or possible reversal. If the former, will look for 20-25 delta downside again, if the latter will start shorting vol depending on market late today.

mbslack1 mbslack1 TY1!, D, Long ,
TY1!: 10 YR FUTURES TRADING AROUND 50 DAY MVG AVG
7 0 1
TY1!, D Long
10 YR FUTURES TRADING AROUND 50 DAY MVG AVG

10 YR BID

mbslack1 mbslack1 SPX500, D, Short ,
SPX500: Add to short positions
37 0 2
SPX500, D Short
Add to short positions

Daily, weekly, monthly charts still look down to me. Anyone betting on policy gets the pillar to post treatment. Pulling h/c bill is still a defeat and short covering at day end not impressive. Tax policy going to fail too b/c voter pressure has House members fearing for their jobs. Voter pressure looks sustained to me.

mbslack1 mbslack1 SPX500, D, Short ,
SPX500: S&P downside potential
38 0 5
SPX500, D Short
S&P downside potential

Consolidation before next leg down.

mbslack1 mbslack1 SPX500, D, Short ,
SPX500: Usually FED takes away the punchbowl; this time it's the FBI!
53 0 4
SPX500, D Short
Usually FED takes away the punchbowl; this time it's the FBI!

Rally based on destroying the environment, removing Dodd-Frank, taking healthcare away from millions of people felt like a non-starter..but hey, hope apparently springs eternal on the Street. The specter of Potus being charged w/ treason has apparently cooled upside momentum.

mbslack1 mbslack1 ZNH2017, D, Long ,
ZNH2017: 10yr upturn may have legs; risk is only 1 handle.
10 0 2
ZNH2017, D Long
10yr upturn may have legs; risk is only 1 handle.

Note rallying as triumph of hope over experience unwinds. Risk is 24 ticks to the downside.

mbslack1 mbslack1 SPX500, D,
SPX500: Daily reversals
31 0 0
SPX500, D
Daily reversals

Simple reversals amid convergence of trend lines (trend lines getting closer together) often provide short term buy and sell signals. Not depicted, but evident, is the loss of momentum on rallies, lack of market breadth on rallies. Fundamental micro does not support this market going higher so "bad data" can spark big sell-offs. Durable Goods Orders missed ...

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