merkd1904

merkd1904

If you were wondering how to say "Reversal" in Swahili now you know. But that's not exactly what the market did today, at least in the major stock indexes. But it's definitely pending verification. It's more correctly a pivot. And today we saw one in the entire broader market. What a day huh? Metals traders woke up to the Claymore Roomba as they went go take...

merkd1904

That's what the market's saying. Literally with the cup of coffee in their hand and a smile on their face. And shit, if the market says everything is fine who are we to tell it it's wrong? Look at how close we are to the gap on SPX weekly, and for that matter the top here on SPX. They're so close they can taste it. And if you were to just look at daily and...

merkd1904

Why wouldn't you? Fed's got your back. The growth stocks that got us here in the first place are actually relatively justified in their valuations. What a week right? As someone who does this more than a hobby this was one of the most intense weeks i've had in a while trading the markets. We had a GDP print, the largest tech CEO's all on capitol hill getting...

merkd1904

Where the Mayor is Jpow, the population is the entire broader market, and the home team The Washington Whipsaw's 5 best players are the 5 guys in a room. It's like one of those horror movies where everyone is in on it and you get a "really bad feeling about this." Because you catch a whipsaw to the dome in the first 10 mins. I think of weeks like these as...

merkd1904

Otherwise known as an h pattern. And as it hasn't fully played out we don't know if it'll play out at all but usually these are continuation patterns when price falls into support of some form, bounces, and then falls back into the lows either knifing through, or stopping for a double bottom. Just like the lower case h, or "even a dead cat bounces if it falls...

merkd1904

Because the whipsaws are coming. The trick is not taking one, or multiple to the face. The amount of macro, earnings, and news we have this weekend is pretty extraordinary. Starting tomorrow we have: Consumer Confidence numbers Wednesday we have: FOMC meeting and press conference where JPOW will again try and not step on his dick Tech CEO's visit to Capitol...

merkd1904 Updated 

You'd think we'd see more action with a gap down like that and fireworks poppin off in the tech space right? Nope. But, when you take a 30k foot look at the market there's some signals that are starting to show that may have matched the relative change in attitude or sentiment today. The most telling to me was the lack of the face ripping bullish bounce...

merkd1904

But is it a trend change? Not quite. Today we saw some of the most meaningful selling, and volume, we've seen in weeks with tech leading the way. We had a pretty brutal news day starting with the miss on jobless claims which surprised me honestly with how bad these economists have been getting it wrong. But the name of the game is still tech. And now we're...

merkd1904

Please hold. That's what the market was telling us today. Essentially that everyone's sitting on their hands and holding their breath as the top heavy portion and almost half of NDX report earnings today into next week. So what's happening on this chart? Whole lotta nothin. That's what. Like watching paint dry. We did print this descending triangle that...

merkd1904

And who knows how long this can go for. They did it again. The cup game. It's like throwing a darts at a dart board to see which market sector they're going to go after on any given day. So it looks like they did weaponize QQQ/AMZN yesterday to get us over the line. And they held it. Even last night in the futures market /RTY was up a larger percentage over...

merkd1904

Technically? No. Should you? No. Do you have to? Yes. Alright - we finally did it! Hooray! Right? Right guys? I'm not so sure. So instead of us gapping over this god forsaken resistance with a threepeat we actually managed to trade up OUT of our resistance that has kept us canned into the sub $320ish level. And surprisingly we did it during the cash session....

merkd1904 Updated 

And it looks like the bulls need to find the key, bribe the doorman, or find another way through. We just spent an essentially an entire week consolidating and trying to get past what has turned out to be a brick wall of resistance. And not because of selling per se, but because of lack of conviction in my opinion. Not because of selling because we haven't been...

merkd1904 Updated 

Like Nebraska flat. Painfully flat. Mind numbing flat. Honestly i don't think we've had to endure such a painfully boring trading like that in a while. At least since last year. But btw. If you want a laugh go look at NFLX's AH's chart. At least that's entertaining. Never disappoints. But today before the last half an hour we traded in a .52% range. .52%....

merkd1904 Updated 

And it was pretty easy to see where the love was being spread today. So last night we had the Moderna vaccine news come out, saying that their phase 2 trials were successful. This is actually, the same news that they released last month that gave us that huge gap up if you remember. But this time around it was peer reviewed, so as it turns out. They were not full...

merkd1904 Updated 

The money's gotta go somewhere. And the growth trade/big tech was so last week. As i said last week the big tech/growth trade was at critical mass. I said that it was going to end badly. And it looks like everyone else was seeing the same thing i was seeing as well. Moves like that aren't sustainable and no one wanted to overstay their welcome. What we're...

merkd1904 Updated 

Alright, i'm an idiot and AGAIN exited out of this as i was almost finished with it. All it takes is to hit "publish" in anything under 15m and if you hit "cancel" it completely deletes everything. Tight. So here it goes again. Alright, last night into today the futures traders did the thing we there gapped us up over resistance. I was originally going to title...

merkd1904 Updated 

It's almost as if everyone saw the same thing i saw last night and acted accordingly. Nah, i'm not that conceited nor am i under the illusion that i am the all seeing market see-er. But alas, interesting trade today huh? I woke up to an alarm set on my /ZN (10 yr t-note) chart that we had broke up out of the range. Red alert. Shit is hitting the fan, right? Well...

merkd1904 Updated 

I hate leaning to one side or the other too heavily because i'm not a prophet and i can't see the future. But there are also some times where you see the proverbial red lights flashing. Exactly a month ago i posted an idea aptly named "BuY tHe DiP" where i in so many words laid out my case for that being the top, at least if not in the interim. And it was....